216
FXUS61 KBTV 250440
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY START TO MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE FEWER SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1238 AM EDT SUNDAY...AREAL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER LIFT SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY TERRAIN FOCUSED SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT NEAR FREEZING AT THE SUMMITS ABOVE
4000 FEET, WHERE WET SLUSHY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS TO PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO
SET, WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND BY
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT ANY SPOTS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE SOME
CLEARING COULD WELL HAVE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY WILL START OUT A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE, BUT WE SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE MORE SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR MORE SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND JUST A BIT OF
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPEST. LIKE TODAY, SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
SHALLOW NATURE OF ANY INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. UNLIKE TODAY, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS,
SCATTERED AT WORST, WITH AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD LIKELY SEEING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PERHAPS
GETTING UP INTO THE MID 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE JUST A
TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 254 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOME VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LOOKS TO SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY, JUST IN TIME TO MAKE USE OF DIMINISHING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
MAY ASSIST IN THE PRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ROUGHLY 15-35% AT TIMES. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY BE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAKING WAY FOR
SUNNY SKIES BY THE EVENING, PARTICULARLY IN THE WIDER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, WARMEST
IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF MONDAY NIGHT, AND WE
ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THOUGH SOME LIGHT, PERSISTENT WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CHALLENGE THE POSSIBILITY,
IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE KIND OF NIGHT TO HAVE SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT GET MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BUILD INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 254 PM EDT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND WARMTH IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THANKS TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S, AND SKIES
WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, THOUGH LEANING MORE TOWARDS SUN
THAN CLOUDS. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS A LOWER CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG
THAN MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WE'LL SEE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO CANADA, RETURNING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
AGREEMENT FALLS APART OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FALLING ON SATURDAY AS WELL WITH ENSEMBLES PROJECTING 50-80%
CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR HIGHER IN 24 HOURS AROUND THAT
TIME PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THE LATE WEEK WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 5Z BUT WE DON'T EXPECT TO SEE ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTION BELOW 6SM GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS.
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND THE
THOUGHT IS WE WILL SEE A STEADY DETERIORATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-7 DEGREES,
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP INTO
THE 1200 TO 2500 FT RANGE WHILE KEFK AND KSLK WILL LIKELY SEE A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 3Z-11Z GIVEN THE TIGHTER DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE CLEARING TONIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION. WE WILL SEE CONDITIONS STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE BY LATE
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
KPBG AND KMPV BOTH BROKE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
5-23 BASED ON PRELIMINARY HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL RECORDS
COULD BE SET TODAY, 5-24, AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV.
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
DATE KBTV KPBG KSLK KMSS KMPV
05-24 49|1928 49|1992 43|1917 51|1956 48|1956
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...CLAY
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV
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