234
FXUS61 KBTV 251145
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
FEWER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 736 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING'S
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
TODAY WE WILL BEGIN OUR TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR
NORTHEAST, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY STILL ROTATING
AROUND AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE'S
A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER COVERAGE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST, WITH SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL WIND DOWN
QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET WITH LOSS OF THE LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES AT 8 AM WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 40S, BUT WARM THROUGH THE DAY AND REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF ANY FURTHER.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, MORE ON PAR WITH SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEPARTING POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL FINALLY LEAD TO BUILDING MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY HEADING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SKIES
SHOULD START OUT CLEAR, HOWEVER, WITH SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS OR
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN ANTICIPATED LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S, EXCEPT LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT'S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE IN VCNTY OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, THERE
ARE LARGE DEPARTURES IN THE GLOBAL NWP SUITE. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A SLOW- MOVING, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS, WHICH
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
REINFORCED VIA ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ROTATING THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS GENERAL IDEA HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
CANADIAN AND A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WITH THAT SAID, THE
00Z GFS HAS A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THE BULK
OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENT POPS
REFLECT NBM MEAN VALUES, WHICH MORE CLOSELY REFLECT THE 00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC RUNS. AT THIS TIME, NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (15- 20%)
WITH THE LATE WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT
LEADING TO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THRU THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...CEILINGS VARY BETWEEN VFR DOWN TO MVFR
CURRENTLY. IFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE AT EFK FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONDITIONS STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING. SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. WE MAY AGAIN SEE SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN, AND SOME MODELS EVEN HINT
AT SOME BR FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...NEILES
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