361
FXUS61 KBTV 251406
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
FEWER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1000 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE. WE'RE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD. THE SUN MAY BE SOMEWHAT SELF-DEFEATING TODAY AS
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF THE BREAKS ALREADY BEING FILLED IN BY
DEVELOPING CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS, BUT OVERALL EXPECT A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL,
MAINLY IN NORTHERN NY. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHILE WIDER VALLEYS ARE IN THE LOW 50S.
FORECAST HAS THIS ALL WELL COVERED, SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER TO MATCH THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY WE WILL BEGIN OUR TREND TOWARDS
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STILL ROTATING AROUND AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. THERE'S A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER COVERAGE IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST, WITH SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
WIND DOWN QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET WITH LOSS OF THE LITTLE BIT
OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES AT 8 AM WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 40S, BUT WARM THROUGH THE DAY AND REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF ANY FURTHER.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, MORE ON PAR WITH SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEPARTING POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL FINALLY LEAD TO BUILDING MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY HEADING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SKIES
SHOULD START OUT CLEAR, HOWEVER, WITH SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS OR
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN ANTICIPATED LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S, EXCEPT LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT'S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE IN VCNTY OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, THERE
ARE LARGE DEPARTURES IN THE GLOBAL NWP SUITE. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A SLOW- MOVING, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS, WHICH
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
REINFORCED VIA ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ROTATING THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS GENERAL IDEA HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
CANADIAN AND A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WITH THAT SAID, THE
00Z GFS HAS A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THE BULK
OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENT POPS
REFLECT NBM MEAN VALUES, WHICH MORE CLOSELY REFLECT THE 00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC RUNS. AT THIS TIME, NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (15- 20%)
WITH THE LATE WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT
LEADING TO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THRU THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...CEILINGS VARY BETWEEN VFR DOWN TO MVFR
CURRENTLY. IFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE AT EFK FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONDITIONS STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING. SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. WE MAY AGAIN SEE SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN, AND SOME MODELS EVEN HINT
AT SOME BR FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...NEILES
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