950
FXUS61 KBTV 251736
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
FEWER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 126 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THESE LATTER SHOWERS WILL CROSS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD
MAKE IT ALONG/EAST OF THE GREENS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL DOMINATE, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. THE FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED, SO JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS
TO POPS AND SKY COVER TO MATCH THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY WE WILL BEGIN OUR TREND TOWARDS
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STILL ROTATING AROUND AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. THERE'S A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER COVERAGE IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST, WITH SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
WIND DOWN QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET WITH LOSS OF THE LITTLE BIT
OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES AT 8 AM WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 40S, BUT WARM THROUGH THE DAY AND REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF ANY FURTHER.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, MORE ON PAR WITH SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEPARTING POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL FINALLY LEAD TO BUILDING MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY HEADING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SKIES
SHOULD START OUT CLEAR, HOWEVER, WITH SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS OR
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN ANTICIPATED LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S, EXCEPT LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT'S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE IN VCNTY OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, THERE
ARE LARGE DEPARTURES IN THE GLOBAL NWP SUITE. THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A SLOW- MOVING, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS, WHICH
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
REINFORCED VIA ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ROTATING THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS GENERAL IDEA HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
CANADIAN AND A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WITH THAT SAID, THE
00Z GFS HAS A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THE BULK
OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENT POPS
REFLECT NBM MEAN VALUES, WHICH MORE CLOSELY REFLECT THE 00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC RUNS. AT THIS TIME, NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (15- 20%)
WITH THE LATE WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIAL COLD POOL ALOFT
LEADING TO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THRU THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 06Z MON, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH 04Z. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN NORTHERN NY/NW VT. SKIES START TO CLEAR OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z,
BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS FORMATION 06Z-12Z. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KPBG TO
GO DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR, WITH IFR EXPECTED AT KMSS/KMPV/KSLK.
LESS CERTAIN ABOUT IFR AT KEFK/KRUT, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE. LOWEST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 08Z-12Z, THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER, ALL TERMINALS VFR BY 15Z. N/NW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20 KT AT KPBG AND KRUT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MVFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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