262
FXUS61 KBTV 251908
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BEGINS IN EARNEST ON
MEMORIAL DAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
OTHERWISE YOU CAN EXPECT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE HOLIDAY. THE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK, THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 307 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD, AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT
WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW INSTABILITY, NOTHING STRONG IS EXPECTED. STILL,
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE; A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
ACTIVITY WILL WANE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OVER BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT IN SOME PLACES, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT
RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
WE'RE FINALLY IN FOR A TRULY NICE DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY. ANY LINGERING
FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS, THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON LIGHT FLOW. CAN'T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.
OTHERWISE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
ANY SHOWERS END AFTER SUNSET, MAKING FOR A PLEASANT EVENING. LOWS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 307 PM EDT SUNDAY...TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MARK A
WELCOME, ALBEIT BRIEF, CHANGE FROM THE PERSISTENT RAINY PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL, KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +8 AND +9 DEG C WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPOT MOUNTAIN
SHOWER OVER OUR HIGH ELEVATIONS AMID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 307 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80S, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. FOR THOSE
LOOKING FOR A LONGER BREAK IN OUR RAINY PATTERN, UNFORTUNATELY THE
MIDWEEK DRY SPELL WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DAMPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES
OVERHEAD. THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES AND THUS MORE PRECISE TIMING OF SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME THIS FAR OUT, BUT OVERALL EXPECTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
INTERSPERSED WITH SOME BREAKS. DESPITE THE CONTINUED WET
CONDITIONS, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HYDROLOGY CONCERNS. A LOOK A NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOW MOST LIKELY DAILY RAINFALL RANGES FOR ANY
GIVEN LOCATION IN OUR CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.3 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS BUT ENOUGH
TO DAMPEN SOME OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST,
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM FORECAST INDICATING BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND DECREASED CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN, TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S. FOR THOSE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FROST
POTENTIAL, THESE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FROSTS.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 06Z MON, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH 04Z. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN NORTHERN NY/NW VT. SKIES START TO CLEAR OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z,
BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS FORMATION 06Z-12Z. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KPBG TO
GO DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR, WITH IFR EXPECTED AT KMSS/KMPV/KSLK.
LESS CERTAIN ABOUT IFR AT KEFK/KRUT, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE. LOWEST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 08Z-12Z, THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER, ALL TERMINALS VFR BY 15Z. N/NW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20 KT AT KPBG AND KRUT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MVFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...DUELL
LONG TERM...DUELL
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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