250
FXUS61 KBTV 260204
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BEGINS IN EARNEST ON
MEMORIAL DAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
OTHERWISE YOU CAN EXPECT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE HOLIDAY. THE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK, THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1002 PM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 1 AM BUT THE CHANCES FOR ANY EMBEDDED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. IT'S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER 2 AM, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW
APPRECIABLE FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD, AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW
INSTABILITY, NOTHING STRONG IS EXPECTED. STILL, BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE; A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
ACTIVITY WILL WANE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN SOME PLACES, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
RECENT RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S.
WE'RE FINALLY IN FOR A TRULY NICE DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY. ANY LINGERING
FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS, THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON LIGHT FLOW. CAN'T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.
OTHERWISE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
ANY SHOWERS END AFTER SUNSET, MAKING FOR A PLEASANT EVENING. LOWS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 307 PM EDT SUNDAY...TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MARK A
WELCOME, ALBEIT BRIEF, CHANGE FROM THE PERSISTENT RAINY PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL, KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +8 AND +9 DEG C WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPOT MOUNTAIN
SHOWER OVER OUR HIGH ELEVATIONS AMID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 307 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80S, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. FOR THOSE
LOOKING FOR A LONGER BREAK IN OUR RAINY PATTERN, UNFORTUNATELY THE
MIDWEEK DRY SPELL WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DAMPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES
OVERHEAD. THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES AND THUS MORE PRECISE TIMING OF SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME THIS FAR OUT, BUT OVERALL EXPECTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
INTERSPERSED WITH SOME BREAKS. DESPITE THE CONTINUED WET
CONDITIONS, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
HYDROLOGY CONCERNS. A LOOK A NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOW MOST LIKELY DAILY RAINFALL RANGES FOR ANY
GIVEN LOCATION IN OUR CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.3 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS BUT ENOUGH
TO DAMPEN SOME OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST,
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM FORECAST INDICATING BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND DECREASED CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN, TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S. FOR THOSE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FROST
POTENTIAL, THESE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FROSTS.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT LIMITED
IMPACTS TO OUR TAF SITES. THE TAF FORECAST IS CONDITIONAL ON IF
SHOWERS IMPACT A SITE BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z, AS THIS WOULD
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/BR
AND OR LOW LEVEL STRATUS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE
UTILIZED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS TO COVER THIS
SCATTERED POTENTIAL. BASED ON SOUNDING DATA AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL BE
MSS/SLK AND EFK WITH INTERVALS OF IFR VIS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
07Z-11Z MONDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A BIT MORE
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
AT MPV/RUT/BTV AND PBG TONIGHT. ANY IFR QUICKLY IMPROVES TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 14Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...CLAY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...DUELL
LONG TERM...DUELL
AVIATION...TABER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page