981
FXUS61 KBTV 260515
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BEGINS IN EARNEST ON
MEMORIAL DAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
OTHERWISE YOU CAN EXPECT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE HOLIDAY. THE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID WEEK, THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1256 AM EDT MONDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN SOME PLACES,
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
WE'RE FINALLY IN FOR A TRULY NICE DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY. ANY
LINGERING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS, THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
ON LIGHT FLOW. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO,
BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. OTHERWISE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ANY SHOWERS END AFTER SUNSET,
MAKING FOR A PLEASANT EVENING. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50F.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 307 PM EDT SUNDAY...TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MARK
A WELCOME, ALBEIT BRIEF, CHANGE FROM THE PERSISTENT RAINY
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL, KEEPING THE WEATHER
QUIET WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +8
AND +9 DEG C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPOT MOUNTAIN SHOWER OVER OUR HIGH ELEVATIONS AMID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 307 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80S, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A LONGER BREAK IN OUR RAINY
PATTERN, UNFORTUNATELY THE MIDWEEK DRY SPELL WILL NOT LAST VERY
LONG. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DAMPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVERHEAD. THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS CHANCES OF SHOWERS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND THUS MORE PRECISE
TIMING OF SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT, BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTERSPERSED WITH SOME BREAKS.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HYDROLOGY CONCERNS. A LOOK A
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOW MOST
LIKELY DAILY RAINFALL RANGES FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION IN OUR CWA
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.3 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO NOT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS BUT ENOUGH TO DAMPEN SOME OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
NBM FORECAST INDICATING BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND DECREASED CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN THIS PAST
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE IN THE LOW
60S TO LOW 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S. FOR THOSE CONCERNED
ABOUT ANY FROST POTENTIAL, THESE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROSTS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...FOG FORMATION IS VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
IT RAINED TODAY. BASED ON SOUNDING DATA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL BE MSS/SLK AND
EFK WITH INTERVALS OF IFR VIS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-11Z MONDAY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A BIT MORE WIND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL AT
MPV/RUT/BTV AND PBG TONIGHT. ANY IFR QUICKLY IMPROVES TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 14Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...CLAY/HASTINGS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DUELL
LONG TERM...DUELL
AVIATION...NEILES
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