864
FXUS61 KBTV 260717
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT, AND FOG HAS FORMED IN THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY WHERE
THERE WAS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION TODAY, EVEN WITH RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS, IT WILL
OVERALL BE A DRIER AND SUNNIER DAY THAN WE'VE HAD RECENTLY. AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WINDS GO CALM UNDER AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, AS WELL AS FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.
TUESDAY WILL START OUT PRETTY SUNNY WITH BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT MIXING AND FULL
SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BRING A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S, WITH WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE (AND
LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK). WHILE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME INCREASE IN MID- LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL TREND MORE
UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS VERTICALLY-STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS EVOLVES INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EARLY JUNE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, POSSIBLY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND QG FORCING EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. INSTABILITY APPEARS MODEST, BUT CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH POPS 60-70%.
THEREAFTER, WILL LIKELY SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND GENERATION OF SHALLOW
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR
NOW BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LOW NBM THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES (GENERALLY 10% OR LESS). MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z
ECMWF SUGGESTS DRIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY, BUT SLOWER CANADIAN
AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER. LOWER
POPS FOR SUNDAY ATTM, BUT KEPT 30-40% MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR EARLY
JUNE GIVEN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...FOG FORMATION IS VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
IT RAINED TODAY. BASED ON SOUNDING DATA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL BE MSS/SLK AND
EFK WITH INTERVALS OF IFR VIS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-11Z MONDAY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A BIT MORE WIND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL AT
MPV/RUT/BTV AND PBG TONIGHT. ANY IFR QUICKLY IMPROVES TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 14Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...NEILES
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