058
FXUS61 KBTV 261140
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 728 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR FOG
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS
THE SUN BEGINS TO HEAT THE LOWER LEVELS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, AND FOG HAS FORMED IN
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE WAS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
TODAY, EVEN WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS, IT WILL OVERALL BE A DRIER AND SUNNIER
DAY THAN WE'VE HAD RECENTLY. AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WINDS
GO CALM UNDER AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, AS
WELL AS FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE. TUESDAY WILL START OUT PRETTY
SUNNY WITH BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION,
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HAVE
GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON
TUESDAY WITH DECENT MIXING AND FULL SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BRING A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S, WITH WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE (AND
LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK). WHILE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME INCREASE IN MID- LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL TREND MORE
UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS VERTICALLY-STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS EVOLVES INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EARLY JUNE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, POSSIBLY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND QG FORCING EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. INSTABILITY APPEARS MODEST, BUT CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH POPS 60-70%.
THEREAFTER, WILL LIKELY SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND GENERATION OF SHALLOW
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR
NOW BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LOW NBM THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES (GENERALLY 10% OR LESS). MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z
ECMWF SUGGESTS DRIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY, BUT SLOWER CANADIAN
AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER. LOWER
POPS FOR SUNDAY ATTM, BUT KEPT 30-40% MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR EARLY
JUNE GIVEN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...HAVE BEEN WRESTLING WITH UPDATING TAFS AS
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HAVE SETTLED OVER SOME AREAS. FOG SHOULD
LIFT BY ABOUT 13 OR 14Z THIS MORNING AS THE SUN HAS ALREADY
RISEN AND WILL LEAD TO MIXING AND HEATING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR TO THIS PAST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. PATCHY BR.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...NEILES
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