869
FXUS61 KBTV 270544
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK, AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1246 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATED TO PLACE SOME PATCHY FROST IN
GRIDS NEAR SLK TONIGHT, AS TEMP IS ALREADY 48F AND FEEL THE LOW
TEMPS IN THE 32-35F RANGE IS LIKELY AT SLK, GIVEN CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. STILL ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING. A
LITTLE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL VT TOO, AS MVL IS
DOWN TO 48F AS OF 10 PM. OTHERWISE FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
POPCORN SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE UNTIL DRY WEATHER REIGNS
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, RESULTING IN
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 40S AND
FOG TO REFORM ACROSS THE VALLEYS, DEVELOPING SIMILARLY TO LAST
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW,
THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PULL SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WE COULD SEE SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS POP UP TOMORROW, THEN
PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING INTO THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY HEADING
NORTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S IN THE AFTERNOON,
MAKING TOMORROW PERHAPS ONE OF THE TWO WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK.
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW VERY DRY AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WITH FORECAST DEW POINTS IN THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GIVE US ANOTHER DRY NIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH WE
CAN EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
OHIO AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN. BECAUSE OF THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS, LOWS WILL FALL ONLY
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 322 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW-NE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. MODELS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S WITH
POPS 30- 50%.
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. QG FORCING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS,
BUT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND OTHER SOURCES OF FORCING, INSTABILITY
OVERALL APPEAR MODEST. HOWEVER, DID CARRY OVER SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE GREENS THURSDAY WITH 50- 70% POPS.
AS THE SYSTEM ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA, A LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKS TO
DEVELOP NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL, WHICH COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
LIMIT MOST OF THE GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL SHIFT OVER TO NORTHERN VERMONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, ALBEIT AS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, INSTABILITY
REMAINS TO LOOK MARGINAL. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE ABOUT ONLY ABOUT 1
INCH, AND MODELS DEPICT MOST OF THE EFFICIENT VAPOR TRANSPORT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, BUT STILL SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 322 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE WETTER
SIDE. A DIGGING TROUGH LOOKS TO FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW FROM
MID-WEEK WITH WITH GEFS AND GEPS SHOWING A SLOWER MOVING SHORTWAVE
WITH LINGERING STEADIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, WITH SOME CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS, BOTH MODELS DEPICT A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE MID- ATLANTIC SATURDAY MORNING AND RIDING ALONG THE
EAST COAST NORTHWARD, BEFORE PHASING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK BEST OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL AT A DRY SLOT FORMING OVER THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT BECOMES
QUITE BIFURCATED BEYOND SATURDAY WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE MAIN UPPER-
TROUGH BECOMES AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO EXIT. THE GEFS LIFTS THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DRAGGING MOST OF THE MOISTURE OUT
BY SUNDAY, WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOW WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH SUNDAY. ALL IN ALL, CHANCES ARE HEDGING
TOWARDS WEEKEND NUMBER 10 IN A ROW WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG-TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASON AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY NEAR 50.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SLK WHERE BRIEF REDUCTION
TO IFR VISIBILITY UNDER BR/FG BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WILL BE
POSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BY 13Z WITH NO
ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS BELOW VFR EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER/STORM
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...NEILES
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