319
FXUS61 KBTV 271933
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN
SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS SHOWERY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CONDITIONS TREND DRIER NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 327 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WE HAVE OBSERVED SOME PINPRICK SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE STEERING FLOW. WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY TOWARDS SUNSET, EXPECT TO TREND DRY AREA-
WIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VALLEY FOG COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN VERMONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST
NIGHT, THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT TOWARDS
SUNRISE.
FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ONE
MORE DAY AND KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE. A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE INCOMING HIGHER CLOUDS. 850
MB TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY,
SO EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TODAYS. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER
THE VALLEYS.
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THESE SHOWERS
WILL START OFF WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE, THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN THAT LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A PARENT LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE GFS MEMBERS, ATTEMPTING TO SPIN UP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED NATURED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES MORE MODERATE AS WE WOULD SIT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.
THE ECMWF MEMBERS KEEP THE PARENT LOW AS THE DOMINANT LOW OVER
ONTARIO LEADING TO MORE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS IF THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS, POPS WILL BE 50-70% ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE ROTATES OUT OF THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
REGION. MODEL PWATS ARE NEAR AN INCH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEK, WHICH
COULD SET UP FOR A SATURATED GROUND FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON
MOVES EASTWARD, SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A FORCING MECHANISM, AND WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES FROM SOUNDINGS,
CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE MOUNTAINS AS A FEW SHORTWAVES EJECT OFF THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SIT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SHOWERS IN BETWEEN SOME CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID-50S IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EDT TUESDAY...A RINSE AND REPEAT OF LAST WEEKENDS
NOR'EASTER LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN DRIVER
OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POP
CHANCES INCREASING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A NOR'EASTER IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND HUG THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND EPS IS
DECENT FOR BEING 4 DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS EAST BETWEEN THE GEFS AND EPS
ARE APPARENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TILT OF THE TROUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO VERMONT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. PWATS WILL BE
NEAR AN INCH WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ABOUT
40-50% IN AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. VAPOR TRANSPORT DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER, GIVEN A
TRACK OF THE NOR'EASTER DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME TRAINING OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREAS, AND GIVEN ANY
PRECIPITATION WE SEE FROM THE THURSDAY EVENT WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
PRE-SATURATED GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT. ONE THING THAT WOULD HELP THIS WEEKEND, IS UNLIKE
LAST WEEKENDS EVENT, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES
OUT QUICKLY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH JUST SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE AND
SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO CLEAR THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY/TUESDAY
WITH LONG-TERM RIDGING LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEK. DEAR
READER, RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT WEEKEND RAINS LOOKS TO BEGIN
AFTER THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 850MB 0-DEGREE LINE
HANGING JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOME
CLEARING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR
AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME VALLEY FOG IN EASTERN VERMONT, THOUGH CONDITIONS LOOK
LESS FAVORABLE THAN THEY DID THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING, HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE TAFS. HOWEVER, THERE IS AROUND A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KMPV MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BR/FG EARLY IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OF VARIABLE
DIRECTIONS, MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DUELL
NEAR TERM...DUELL
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DUELL
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