680
FXUS61 KBTV 280515
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN
SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS SHOWERY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A COASTAL LOW
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CONDITIONS TREND DRIER NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 108 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY AND KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN
PLACE. A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT
STILL PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE INCOMING
HIGHER CLOUDS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY, SO EXPECTING SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAYS. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THESE SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS.
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THESE
SHOWERS WILL START OFF WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE, THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES GOING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE GFS MEMBERS,
ATTEMPTING TO SPIN UP A WEAK COASTAL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED NATURED SHOWERS
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE
MODERATE AS WE WOULD SIT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE ECMWF
MEMBERS KEEP THE PARENT LOW AS THE DOMINANT LOW OVER ONTARIO
LEADING TO MORE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS IF THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS, POPS WILL BE 50-70% ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE ROTATES OUT OF THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
REGION. MODEL PWATS ARE NEAR AN INCH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEK,
WHICH COULD SET UP FOR A SATURATED GROUND FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM
OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON MOVES EASTWARD, SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FORCING MECHANISM, AND
WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES FROM SOUNDINGS, CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK
MARGINAL. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE
MOUNTAINS AS A FEW SHORTWAVES EJECT OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SIT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS
IN BETWEEN SOME CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID-50S IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EDT TUESDAY...A RINSE AND REPEAT OF LAST WEEKENDS
NOR'EASTER LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH POP CHANCES INCREASING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A NOR'EASTER
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND HUG THE COAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GEFS AND EPS IS DECENT FOR BEING 4 DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT
BRINGING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS EAST
BETWEEN THE GEFS AND EPS ARE APPARENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TILT
OF THE TROUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO VERMONT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT. PWATS WILL BE NEAR AN INCH WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES OF
GREATER THAN 1 INCH ABOUT 40-50% IN AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. VAPOR TRANSPORT DOES NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER, GIVEN A TRACK OF THE NOR'EASTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME TRAINING OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREAS, AND GIVEN ANY PRECIPITATION WE SEE
FROM THE THURSDAY EVENT WHICH WOULD LEAD TO PRE-SATURATED
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT. ONE THING THAT WOULD HELP THIS WEEKEND, IS UNLIKE LAST
WEEKENDS EVENT, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES OUT
QUICKLY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH JUST SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE AND
SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO CLEAR THE EAST COAST BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH LONG-TERM RIDGING LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEAR READER, RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT WEEKEND RAINS
LOOKS TO BEGIN AFTER THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE 850MB 0-DEGREE LINE HANGING JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AFTER THE
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH SOME CLEARING FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR 7
TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS. THE PROBABILITY OF FOG AND IFR AT SLK/MPV IS <10%
TONIGHT, DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AND SEVERAL DAYS REMOVED
FROM PRECIP. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON WED WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS, EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT
RUT/PBG.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY: MVFR. CHANCE RA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DUELL
NEAR TERM...DUELL/NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...NEILES
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