726
FXUS61 KBTV 280756
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY BEFORE ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A
MORE ROBUST LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE A PRETTY SIMILAR
DAY TO YESTERDAY, BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE CLOUDS. STILL,
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE DEWPOINTS. RH WILL DROP INTO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM, RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ALSO NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY TO REACH UP TO AROUND 7,000 FEET. THESE LOW TOPS
SHOULD KEEP ANY OF THE RAIN VERY LIGHT THOUGH. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH AS WELL, THE DYNAMICS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS MUCH, THOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY HELP ENHANCE THEIR COVERAGE A BIT. WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE EVENING, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD FALL APART
QUICKLY, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A CUTOFF LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL REJOIN THE CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PHASING WILL HELP DEEPEN AN INCOMING LARGE
SCALE TROUGH AND INVIGORATE A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND IT. A
POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE UP INTO THE REGION AS ANOTHER NOR'EASTER
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS VARIATION IN THE
FORECAST STORM TRACK, ENSEMBLE MEANS OF MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NORTHEAST INTO MAINE, YET ANOTHER STORM
THAT WOULD TAKE AN IDEAL SNOW TRACK IF IT WAS WINTER. THIS
FAVORED TRACK IS DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND NAM. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE ONE
AT THE END OF LAST WEEK AS THAT IT WILL BE MUCH FASTER MOVING,
AS THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE REGION
LESS THAN 24 HOURS AFTER IT ENTERS. ALSO, TEMPERATURES ON SUMMIT
LEVELS SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW, THOUGH IT MAY BE
CLOSE FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS ON THE BACKSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN LAST WEEK'S STORM AS WELL,
WITH GEFS, EPS AND CAN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN AN
INCH OF RAIN ONLY UP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE HIGHEST AREAS.
WITH ENSEMBLES NOW MOSTLY TOGETHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND
GENERAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THESE
PROBABILITIES WOULD GROW MUCH MORE. BEHIND THIS LOW, THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING LOOKS TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY THEREFORE STILL
LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES DUE TO MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW, BUT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR 7
TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS. THE PROBABILITY OF FOG AND IFR AT SLK/MPV IS <10%
TONIGHT, DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AND SEVERAL DAYS REMOVED
FROM PRECIP. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON WED WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS, EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT
RUT/PBG.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY: MVFR. CHANCE RA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
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