869
FXUS61 KBTV 281752
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY BEFORE ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A
MORE ROBUST LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 121 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING LAKE CHAMPLAIN
MAY BE A LITTLE STUNTED OWING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE
BREEZE OFF THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH A FEW, BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE A PRETTY SIMILAR DAY TO
YESTERDAY, BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE CLOUDS. STILL,
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE DEWPOINTS. RH WILL DROP INTO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM, RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ALSO NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY TO REACH UP TO AROUND 7,000 FEET. THESE LOW TOPS
SHOULD KEEP ANY OF THE RAIN VERY LIGHT THOUGH. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH AS WELL, THE DYNAMICS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS MUCH, THOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY HELP ENHANCE THEIR COVERAGE A BIT. WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE EVENING, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD FALL APART
QUICKLY, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A CUTOFF LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL REJOIN THE CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PHASING WILL HELP DEEPEN AN INCOMING LARGE
SCALE TROUGH AND INVIGORATE A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND IT. A
POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE UP INTO THE REGION AS ANOTHER NOR'EASTER
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS VARIATION IN THE
FORECAST STORM TRACK, ENSEMBLE MEANS OF MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NORTHEAST INTO MAINE, YET ANOTHER STORM
THAT WOULD TAKE AN IDEAL SNOW TRACK IF IT WAS WINTER. THIS
FAVORED TRACK IS DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND NAM. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE ONE
AT THE END OF LAST WEEK AS THAT IT WILL BE MUCH FASTER MOVING,
AS THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE REGION
LESS THAN 24 HOURS AFTER IT ENTERS. ALSO, TEMPERATURES ON SUMMIT
LEVELS SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW, THOUGH IT MAY BE
CLOSE FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS ON THE BACKSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN LAST WEEK'S STORM AS WELL,
WITH GEFS, EPS AND CAN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN AN
INCH OF RAIN ONLY UP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE HIGHEST AREAS.
WITH ENSEMBLES NOW MOSTLY TOGETHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND
GENERAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THESE
PROBABILITIES WOULD GROW MUCH MORE. BEHIND THIS LOW, THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING LOOKS TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY THEREFORE STILL
LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES DUE TO MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW, BUT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE DESPITE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW
ELEMENTS MAY BECOME THICK ENOUGH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS, BUT TERMINAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
LAKE BREEZE HAS SET UP AND IS KEEPING WESTERLY WINDS AT BTV WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT PBG. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 22Z WHEN THE
THERMAL CURVE BEGINS TO CUT OFF THIS INDUCED WIND RELINQUISHING
CONTROL BACK TO A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW.
CLOUDS INCREASE SHARPLY OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RISING 10-18Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. RUT/MPV/SLK WILL BE
AT MOST RISK TO DEVELOP MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z WITH LOWER CHANCES
AT IFR.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BOYD/NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...BOYD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page