604
FXUS61 KBTV 260447
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1247 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY EVENING
ONWARD. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1034 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME
SHALLOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORNLY STICKING AROUND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF VERMONT THIS EVENING WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE. VERY HIGH, THIN CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO STREAM OVER
NORTHERN AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ALREADY, WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
THICKEN AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS, ALONG WITH A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTHEASTWARD, WILL MITIGATE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. HOWEVER, WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED AREAS CERTAINLY ARE
COOLING OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME UPPER 50S ALREADY IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE MAINLY IN THE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60, NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 311 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER REMAINS
LIKELY FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT BUILDS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME WITH POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD AS STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS OFF TO OUR
IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST. THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL REMAIN SOMEWHAT INEXACT AT THIS POINT, BUT CONSENSUS FAVORS
FAR NORTHERN NY INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VT AND ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIER OF QUEBEC CONSISTENT WITH MOST RECENT WPC ERO
GUIDANCE. NATIONAL BLENDED ENSEMBLE QPF OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SWATH OF
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS AREA, WHICH, IF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS PRESENT WOULD YIELD POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN SCATTERED TO LOCALIZED AREAS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS, NO FLOOD WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER, IF CONSENSUS REMAINS IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS THEN THAT WOULD BE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. I WILL ADD THAT
THE BEHAVIOR OF THESE TYPES OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SYSTEMS OFTEN
ATTEMPT TO BUILD SOUTH AND WEST OVER TIME INTO THE MORE DEEPLY
MIXED, UNSTABLE AIRMASSES, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LATE LAST WEEK
ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE. OUR SITUATION WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT AS SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, SO TIME WILL TELL ON HOW THIS ALL
EVOLVES. FOR AN EXPERT ANALYSIS ON A SIMILAR TYPE OF EVENT WHICH
OCCURRED IN OUR AREA IN 2002, PLEASE REFERENCE WHITTIER ET. AL. FROM
2004 ON OUR NWS BURLINGTON LOCAL STUDIES WEB PAGE AT:
WEATHER.GOV/BTV/RESEARCH. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, THOSE REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL ON FRIDAY (60S TO AROUND 70) WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
VALUES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 311 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NORTHEAST NOSE OF
OUR MOST RECENT HEAT DOME BUILDS BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE REGION.
925-850 HPA THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THIS SECOND ROUND OF WARMTH
WON'T BE NEARLY AS EXCESSIVE AS OUR MOST RECENT BOUT, BUT HIGHS
SOLIDLY IN THE 80S TO LOCALLY AROUND 90 APPEAR REASONABLE BY NEXT
MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY INTO TUESDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SWING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
HYDROLOGY
THE LATEST BLENDED MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
IDEA THAT ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AT PLAY, THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS THAT THE
FOCUS WILL LIE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NY INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
VERMONT. GIVEN NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AND 0-40CM SOIL MOISTURE
PROFILES, WE DO HAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM/CAPACITY TO HANDLE SOME OF THE
RUNOFF. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT WITH THE EMPHASIS MORE ON THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
SMALL STREAMS/WATERSHEDS IN STEEP TERRAIN. HOWEVER, A FEW OF THE
SMALLER RIVERS MAY SEE SHARP RISES BY SATURDAY. OUR CURRENT BLENDED
QPF PROGS SUPPORT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH
THE REALIZATION THAT SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION OFTEN OCCURS DURING CONVECTIVE EVENTS. CURRENT 3/6 HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3.5 INCHES ALL APPEARS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...CLAY
HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV
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