409
FXUS61 KBTV 262338
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION TODAY, ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE SOUTH WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS CLEARING IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE SOUTH TOWARDS CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE THE CLOUD CLEARING
TREND WILL STALL. NO DRASTIC CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE, BUT DID
ADD PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT IN THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND DID DECREASE QPF FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REACHED THE LOW 50S, AND
WITH THE CURRENT CLEARING TREND, COOLING TO THAT THRESHOLD
TONIGHT APPEARS LIKLEY. FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PERTAINING TO TOMORROW, 18Z CAMS AND NBM RUNS SUGGEST A SLOWER
SYSTEM AT THE ONSET WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. SO DID
ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BACK BY A FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS STILL
ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES, WITH PWAT
VALUES NEARING 2.0 INCHES AND DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE HEAVY RAIN SET- UP, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTHWARD, KEEPING JUST
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DESPITE THE
CURRENT TREND, ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL MCS WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SO THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS 1.5 TO INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS CURRENT TREND, NO FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
WITH THE NEXT FEW ROUNDS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. WPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 4) IN THE DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS
SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE
MILDER SIDE WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL SEE THINGS DRY OUT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BRINGING THE RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER
AS TEMPERATURES PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL CONCERNS WITH RUNOFF FROM HIGHER TERRAIN
HEIGHTENING THE CHANCES FOR SOME FLOODING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE DAY.
RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY, BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER
PUSH OF HEAT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. VALLEYS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING 90. WHILE WE WILL HAVE MID LEVEL
RIDGING, THERE IS STILL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL BE MORE UNSETTLED AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TIMING STILL REMAINS UP IN AIR,
BUT THERE ARE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
THE MID-WEEK ALSO REMAINS UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LOW STALLS TO OUR
NORTH, BRINGING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
POTENTIAL LIFR FOG AT MPV BETWEEN 06-12Z FRIDAY. DRIER AIR
BRIEFLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO VT AND NRN NY FROM SRN QUEBEC IS
RESULTING IN DIMINISHING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SKIES
TREND FEW-SCT200-250 FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FOG,
WITH BEST CHANCE AT MPV, WHERE 1SM BR IS CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN
THE TAF FOR THE PRE- DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE, WILL BE LOOKING AT
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY, WINDS BECOMING SE AT 10-12KT, LOCALLY
A BIT HIGHER AT PBG/BTV WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS EXPECTED. WILL SEE
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, WITH A 10%
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KMSS. INCLUDED
JUST -SHRA FOR NOW, WITH RAIN COMMENCING AROUND 20Z AT KMSS, AND
GENERALLY BETWEEN 22-00Z ELSEWHERE. SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
HYDROLOGY
THE LATEST NWS FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH BOUNDARY POSITION AND MOVEMENT
AT PLAY, THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. GIVEN NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AND 0-40CM SOIL MOISTURE
PROFILES, WE DO HAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM/CAPACITY TO HANDLE SOME OF
THE RUNOFF. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH THE EMPHASIS MORE ON THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN SMALL STREAMS/WATERSHEDS IN STEEP TERRAIN. HOWEVER, A
FEW OF THE SMALLER RIVERS MAY SEE SHARP RISES BY SATURDAY. OUR
CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST INDICATES 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES,
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT NEEDS TO BE
STATED, A SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION OFTEN
OCCURS DURING CONVECTIVE EVENTS, SO EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT ARE VERY CHALLENGING. CURRENT 3/6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3.5 INCHES ALL APPEARS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...DANZIG/KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...VERASAMY
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV
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