940
FXUS61 KBTV 291411
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1011 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED, TODAY. A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND
WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1009 AM EDT SUNDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MAKING
PROGRESS ACROSS VERMONT, BUT THERE'S PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A VERY NARROW "WARM SECTOR" AS
OF THIS HOUR WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE OVER
EASTERN VERMONT BY DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES. THE LATEST
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE FRONTAL INVERSION
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT WHICH IS LIKELY TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SO IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR SKIES TO FULLY CLEAR OUT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, BY 21Z, IT APPEARS THAT WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE FRONTAL
INVERSION AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED BY SUNSET. THERE ISN'T MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SO WE WILL STILL
SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MANY PLACES ACROSS VERMONT AND
NEW YORK WILL RAPIDLY COOL OFF BELOW THEIR CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES.
THE NAM3, HRRR, AND RAP ARE SHOWING PRETTY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CONNECTICUT AND WINOOSKI RIVER
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE DENSE FOG
COVERAGE BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY OTHER LOCATIONS.
MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND
ABOVE NORMAL 925 MB, 850 MB, AND 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
WIDER VALLEY. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR HOVERING OFF THE
DECK ON MONDAY SO AS WE WARM AND MIX DEEPER, WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE
OUR DEWPOINTS DROP. PRESENTLY, WE EXPECT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
BUT IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 90 TO 93 DEGREES RANGE WHICH
WILL REMAIN BELOW AND HEADLINE CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 254 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS STILL SHOW THAT THE
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED, SO THE CHANCES FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. WHILE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S,
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO CAP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH 2" PWATS COULD
LEAD TO A SOME REALLY EFFECT RAINFALL IN THE STORM THAT DO POP
UP.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 254 AM EDT SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A PUSH OF DRIER AND
COOLER AIR, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEW POINTS BEING A BIT LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY, IN THE LOWER 60S, THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO A SIMILARLY HOT DAY AS TUESDAY, WITH TEMPS IN
MID 80S. THURSDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE TO THE NORTH OF
AREA, BRINGING AN ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE, WITH THAT ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL UNSETTLED WEEKEND AWAITS.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WINDS HAVE VEERED FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. POCKETS OF MFVR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
KSLK, KRUT, AND KMPV THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING CLOUD
COVER THEREAFTER. THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE QUIET OVERALL WITH
WEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD
FOG IS ON THE TABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SUGGEST VLIFR FOG AT
KSLK, KEFK, KRUT, AND KMPV.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. PATCHY BR.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CLAY
NEAR TERM...CLAY/HAYNES
SHORT TERM...VERASAMY
LONG TERM...VERASAMY
AVIATION...CLAY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page