773
FXUS61 KBTV 291722
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED, TODAY. A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND
WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 113 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. IT'S MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SPRING TO HAVE
STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED BENEATH A MID-LEVEL INVERSION, AND HENCE,
OUR TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLIMB. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
THE REGION. ALSO, CLOUD COVER FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS HAS BEEN INCREASED. THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
ERODE AS MID-LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARDS WITH AN
INCOMING RIDGE.
AFTER SUNSET, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MANY PLACES ACROSS VERMONT AND
NEW YORK WILL RAPIDLY COOL OFF BELOW THEIR CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES.
THE NAM3, HRRR, AND RAP ARE SHOWING PRETTY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CONNECTICUT AND WINOOSKI RIVER
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE DENSE FOG
COVERAGE BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY OTHER LOCATIONS.
MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND
ABOVE NORMAL 925 MB, 850 MB, AND 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
WIDER VALLEY. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR HOVERING OFF THE
DECK ON MONDAY SO AS WE WARM AND MIX DEEPER, WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE
OUR DEWPOINTS DROP. PRESENTLY, WE EXPECT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
BUT IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE WE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 90 TO 93 DEGREES RANGE WHICH
WILL REMAIN BELOW AND HEADLINE CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 254 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS STILL SHOW THAT THE
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED, SO THE CHANCES FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. WHILE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S,
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO CAP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH 2" PWATS COULD
LEAD TO A SOME REALLY EFFECT RAINFALL IN THE STORM THAT DO POP
UP.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 254 AM EDT SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A PUSH OF DRIER AND
COOLER AIR, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEW POINTS BEING A BIT LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY, IN THE LOWER 60S, THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO A SIMILARLY HOT DAY AS TUESDAY, WITH TEMPS IN
MID 80S. THURSDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE TO THE NORTH OF
AREA, BRINGING AN ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE, WITH THAT ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL UNSETTLED WEEKEND AWAITS.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE LAST
6 HOURS. CEILINGS REMAIN BETWEEN 2500-4500 FT AGL ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS AS A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS REMAINS. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY THINNING, WITH ALL SITES LIKELY VFR BY ABOUT
21-22Z. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 4 TO 10
KNOTS. THESE WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH COMMON SOUTHEAST
DRAINAGE FLOW AT KRUT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT KEFK, AND EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT KBTV. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG OVER
CLIMATOLOGICAL RIVER VALLEYS. 1/4SM TO 1/2SM FOG IS FORECAST AT
KMPV AND KSLK ABOUT 05-06Z, AND 2SM IS LIKELY AT KRUT AND KEFK
THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z, FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL TREND SOUTH WITH SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCES AT
KRUT AND KPBG AROUND 4 TO 7 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG
WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CLAY
NEAR TERM...CLAY/HAYNES
SHORT TERM...VERASAMY
LONG TERM...VERASAMY
AVIATION...HAYNES
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