098
FXUS61 KBTV 300516
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1016 PM EDT SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY ERODED
WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT. ALREADY SEEING SOME 4SM
BR AT KSLK, AND THIS IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT AS LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, THAT WE WILL SEE
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ATTM TO SKY COVER AND FOG COVERAGE
AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE.
FORECAST LOWS IN OUR COLD HOLLOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50S, WHILE THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SEES
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LOCATIONS BY LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WHICH HAS
SURFACE WATERS OF ABOUT 64-69 DEGREES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
60S. MONDAY WON'T BE LIKE TODAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEARER WHILE DRY
AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD AND A SOUTH TO SSW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PBL HEATING WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FORTUNATELY,
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHICH
MEANS IT WON'T PACK AS MUCH PUNCH AS THE LAST HEAT EVENT IN
TERMS OF THE HEAT RISK/INDEX. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WILL ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE, WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND
BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEATURE
HAS TRENDED TO LOOK A BIT BETTER DEFINED, AND HAVE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PASSAGE, THOUGH THERE IS STILL HIGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO NOW SEEMS TO BE THAT THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE PEAK OF SOLAR
HEATING. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO
SOUTHERN AREAS AND EVEN THERE, IT WOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING, SOMETHING THAT WOULD LIKELY SLOW THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY AND CAUSE IT TO HAVE STRONGER
DYNAMICS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT,
AND EXPAND THE AREA FARTHER NORTH.
WHILE THE REGION WILL ALREADY BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE TIME OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S,
THERE WILL BE A FEW IMPORTANT INHIBITING FACTORS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND RESEMBLE A MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND FROM A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO PREVENT EFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION, AND MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLES TO BRING A DEFINED FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
AMPLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. DESPITE THESE INHIBITING FACTORS, THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALREADY IN PLACE,
IT WOULD PROBABLY NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEATING TO CAUSE A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO. DESPITE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN, FAST STORM MOTION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF A FLOOD
THREAT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...A DEEP TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THIS FEATURE ON THURSDAY AND BRINGS A POCKET OF
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
AND SOLAR HEATING ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW FAVORING A SMALL DOUGHNUT HOLE OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE, THE
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ALREADY STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD
LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN
END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES, BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN AREAS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
FOG BEGINNING TO SITUATE IN THE WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
BASINS AS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KRUT, KMPV,
KEFK, AND KSLK BETWEEN NOW AND 13Z. FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KBTV, KPBG,
AND KMSS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HAYNES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...CLAY
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