532
FXUS61 KBTV 302315
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF TOMORROW AS A SERIES OF FRONTS TRAVERSES THE REGION. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. CLOUDS
ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE ATTEMPTING TO MAKE IT INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY, BUT ARE ENCOUNTERING SOME DRY AIR OUT
AHEAD OF THEM. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
BUT LARGELY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY BE SLIGHTLY
MORE BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAKER INVERSION EXPECTED, WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS 20-25 ACROSS THE LAKE AND NEAR
15-20 IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. OTHERWISE, MOST SHOULD SEE WINDS
LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
TOMORROW, BUT THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BUT ANY INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED. CLEARING
BEHIND THIS TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS ACTING AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL, BUT WITH HIGH DEW POINTS FROM THE REGION ALREADY
BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND PLENTIFUL SHEAR, ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND RESEMBLE A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND FROM THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO PREVENT EFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION, THERE
WILL BE NO CIN BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH, AND THERE IS NOT
MUCH OF A DEFINED FRONTAL FEATURE/SURFACE CONVERGENCE. DESPITE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BEING VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN, FAST
STORM MOTION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 251 PM EDT MONDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY. BY AFTERNOON, DEW POINTS SHOULD BE DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST AREAS. A TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND IT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES ALOFT, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY STAY LOW ENOUGH
WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INHIBITED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 251 PM EDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
INTO THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS
DIURNAL HEATING WARMS SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND IT WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO CREATE A MORE LINEAR FEATURE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BUT THE COLD CORE
SETUP IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST AND
THE DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. GUIDANCE IS NOW LEANING TOWARD HAVING A
POCKET OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT STAY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MANY OF THE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHOWER CHANCES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE CLOSE
TO SEASONABLE WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS EXCEPT AT SLK WHERE GUSTS 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PREVIOUSLY, IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WOULD
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS
COULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT MOST OR ALL SITES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFT
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 05Z AND 11Z, FOLLOWED BY MORE CONCENTRATED,
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK ABOUT 07Z-19Z AND ACROSS VERMONT ABOUT 08Z-16Z. SHOWERS
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 4-6 MILES, LOCALLY LOWER POSSIBLE IN
DOWNPOURS OR THUNDERSTORMS, AND THEN CEILINGS WILL DROP TO
1000-2800 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. AT THIS TIME, SLK AND MSS
LOOK MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A PERIOD OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET
AROUND 10Z-16Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MYSKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...DANZIG/MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...STORM
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