873
FXUS61 KBTV 011738
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL TREND
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY, WITH A SHARPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. JULY
4TH WILL OPEN TO COOL CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEFORE
TRENDING DRY OVER THE EVENING. DURING THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY CLIMB TOWARDS THE 90S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 136 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT, MOSTLY DEFINED BY ITS
MOISTURE GRADIENT, IS SHIFTING EAST AT THIS TIME. IT'S NOT THE
SHARPEST OF FEATURES, BROKEN INTO MANY DIFFERENT PIECES, AS PER
USUAL. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTING UPSTREAM ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS ONE OF THOSE
PIECES. WITH ABOUT 750-1250 J/KG OF CAPE, PULSES OF CONVECTION
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF
FRONTAL FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING WANE, THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD COME TO AN END. GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS, LEAVING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
THERE'S PROBABLY TOO MUCH FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR ANY FOG,
BUT SECTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT SHOULD STILL BE PRONE TO RADIATION
FOG ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS.
ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE
COOLER, BUT WITH DRY AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE, SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
BE MODERATELY EFFICIENT. SO TEMPERATURES COULD WIND UP BEING ABOUT
THE SAME AS TODAY, RANGING ACROSS THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 136 PM EDT TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WAKING UP
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH
MID 50S TO MID 60S. MID TO LATE ON THURSDAY MORNING, INCREASING
VORTICITY, A MODEST JET STREAK, AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT, WILL
OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY, DESPITE
TEMPERATURES RANGING ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ADDITIONALLY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED
WITH THE WIND SHIFT. THE MAIN THING THAT COULD KEEP ACTIVITY AT BAY
IS THAT WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL NOT BE COLLOCATED WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY. WITH ABOUT 25-30 KNOTS OF SHEAR, THIS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZATION. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK (LEVEL 1 OF 5), AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE.
WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL HAZARDS. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SOME ACTUAL COOL CONDITIONS BEHIND IT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AS
RAIN PULLS AWAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 136 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY, MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS THE UPPER LOW
SWINGS BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, BUT A MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL KEEP ANY COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED AT MOST. THE DAY COULD START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE, BUT
EXPECT MOST SPOTS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE A
WARMING TREND AS RIDGING NOSES INTO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S. AFTER A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT, SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A
COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE IN THE DAY; THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR EVEN MONDAY, BUT
HAVE STAYED WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT.
FASTER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT COULD ALSO IMPACT SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGHS
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT IT MAY HANG UP
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
TUESDAY. ASSUMING THE FRONT DOES FINALLY THROUGH ON MONDAY, NORTHERN
AREAS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WHILE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT WILL ONCE
AGAIN APPROACH 90F.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO
REMAIN MOST PERSISTENT IN SOUTHERN AREAS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE AT KMPV. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GUSTS SUBSIDING AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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