180
FXUS61 KBTV 021117
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRY FOR TODAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, WITH A SHARPER COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. JULY 4TH WILL OPEN TO COOL CONDITIONS WITH PLEASANT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. DURING THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY CLIMB TOWARDS THE 90S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 156 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, VORTICITY ADVECTION AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE ALL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA, AND WILL HAVE A DECENT JET STRUCTURE OVERHEAD.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTED TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE,
AREA WITH BEST CHANCE AT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 156 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING A FEW
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY.
OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES, A RELATIVELY DRY AND
PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE, WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE DAY WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 70S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S MAKING IT FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 156 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING
TEMPERATURES TREND EXPECTED. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S. AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT, HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL ARRIVE, WHICH MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BORDER. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE SLOW
TO PROGRESS, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL IT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY.
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE SPOTS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED BR AT MSS TOWARDS
EARLY THU MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...NEILES
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