847  
FXUS61 KBTV 030700  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
300 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHICH ALONG  
WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR JULY  
4TH, WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND STARTS  
ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES  
THE REGION, AS WELL AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH  
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE  
DAY, AND WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY, THEN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE  
FRONT. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE MORE  
OF OUR AREA. PRETTY EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE  
LOWER 80S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS, BUT  
ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 70S IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS EARLIER IN THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS  
FAVORABLE AS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AT THE SURFACE OUT OF THE  
WEST TO NORTHWEST, AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD  
WITHIN BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE  
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT  
SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. TIMING  
OF THE FRONT BEING EARLY IN THE DAY COULD LIMIT SEVERE  
POTENTIAL. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH MAINLY WESTERLY  
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR AND NAM3 BOTH SHOW 2 AREAS  
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE TROUGHS CROSSING  
THE AREA, FIRST THIS MORNING AND THEN A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS  
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, THE HRRR IS THE MORE ROBUST  
SOLUTION OUT OF THE TWO. EVEN IF STORMS DO NOT BECOME  
STRONG/SEVERE, THEY WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY  
LIGHTNING. TIMING FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN  
BUMPED EARLIER, MAINLY 1 PM TO 7 PM. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER  
BEYOND 7 PM. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, PLEASE STAY WEATHER  
AWARE AND FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES. WHEN THERE ARE  
PEAKS OF SUN TODAY, EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS AS SOME CANADIAN  
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. QUIETER AND COOLER  
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...A PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY  
WEATHER AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE SEASONABLY WARM, CLIMBING INTO THE  
LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES  
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER ENJOYABLE  
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN MORE HUMID AIR,  
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70  
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING  
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A PERIOD DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING  
HEAT FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A MORE  
HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE  
REGION, FEELING QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE  
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THE HEAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO  
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA  
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS  
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL  
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP  
PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LOWERING VISIBILITIES TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT  
ANY FOG WILL REACH THE TAF SITES AND RESTRICT VISIBILITIES.  
OVERALL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REIGNS THIS AFTERNOON 3-12  
KNOTS WITH SOME SITES TAKING ON A MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  
MAINLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND  
TOMORROW, THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY 4500 FEET ABOVE  
GROUND LEVEL OR HIGHER. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE 12Z-18Z  
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM 18Z  
ONWARD. DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,  
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO LOWER THAN FORECAST. WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW 5-10 KNOTS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE, POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER IN ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
INDEPENDENCE DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
TSRA.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...NEILES  
NEAR TERM...NEILES  
SHORT TERM...KREMER  
LONG TERM...KREMER  
AVIATION...NEILES  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab NY Page
Main Text Page