155
FXUS61 KBTV 040644
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
244 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION TODAY, WITH PLEAANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND 90S BY SUNDAY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 244 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER ALL OF THE RAIN YESTERDAY, SOME AREAS
OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
70S, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S,
WITH PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM DROPPING INTO
THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 244 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CREST
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE IN THE 90S AREAWIDE, FEELING QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE AFTER A FEW
DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER. WHILE THE HEAT IS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER
THIS SEASON, BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATE AND USE CAUTION WITH ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 244 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS,
THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. BEHIND THIS FEATURE, CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE SEASONABLE ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED FOR MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTH AND EAST OF IT (MAINLY VT), FOG IS DEVELOPING
IN CLEARING DOWN TO 1/2-2SM OR MID CLOUDS AROUND 4000-7000 FT
AGL ARE BANKING UP AGAINST MOUNTAIN RIDGES. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK, LOW DEWPOINTS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION, BUT ALSO
INCREASING WINDS TO 15 KNOTS AT 500 FT AGL. THE FOG AT KRUT AND
KMPV MAY BE IN AND OUT DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, BUT THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM ON FOG
SCATTERING OUT. AFTER 12Z, NORTHWEST WINDS OF 7 TO 12 KNOTS
SUSTAINED AND GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000-7000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL
TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEYOND 23Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR TOO, AND
FOG IS EXPECTED WITH GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
3SM BR AND A SCT002 ARE ALREADY NOTED FOR KSLK AND KMPV AFTER
04Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...HAYNES
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