664
FXUS61 KBTV 041806
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
206 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION TODAY, WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S BY SUNDAY. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 244 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER ALL OF THE RAIN YESTERDAY, SOME AREAS
OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
70S, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S,
WITH PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM DROPPING INTO
THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 244 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CREST
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE IN THE 90S AREAWIDE, FEELING QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE AFTER A FEW
DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER. WHILE THE HEAT IS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER
THIS SEASON, BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATE AND USE CAUTION WITH ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WX MID/LATE WEEK. ALSO, MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS OUR CWA, WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. A COLD FRONT WL BE SLICING ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE, MODERATE
INSTABILITY, AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WL
PLAY AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND HOW
ROBUST CONVECTION CAN BECOME. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AXIS OF
1500 TO 2200 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT,
WITH INCREASING 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS,
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID LVL WINDS AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT IN THE BL. IN ADDITION, AS THE MID/UPPER LVL FLOW
PARALLELS THE SFC BOUNDARY, SOUNDING AND STORM VECTOR ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACK BUILDING STORMS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE BTWN 11,500 AND 12,500 FT AND PW VALUES ARE IN THE
1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE, WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL, SUPPORTING
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. BOTH THE
SEVERE AND HYDRO THREATS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY ON
MONDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS SHOW A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
ACRS OUR FA WITH VALUES NEAR 25C IN SOUTHERN ZNS, SUPPORTING
HIGHS L/M 90S AND EVEN WARMER HEAT INDEX VALUES, ESPECIALLY
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
FRONT WL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ARRIVING ON TUES INTO WEDS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MOVES TOWARD OUR FA FOR THURS INTO FRI WITH MORE
SHOWER/STORMS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM IS
UNCERTAIN ATTM, WITH A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, SO HAVE
STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. AS TIMING OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
BECOMES CLEARER, HIGHER POPS MAYBE NEEDED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV ON SATURDAY MORNING.
CRNTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 3500 TO
5000 FEET AGL AND NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH CROSS OVER VALUES IN CLIMO FAVORED FOG
AREAS. SO HAVE UTILIZED TEMPO'S FOR IFR/LIFR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN
06/07Z TO 10/11Z IN FOG FOR NOW. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50%, BUT IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, PREVAILING
GROUPS CAN BE ADDED. OTHERWISE, FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z SATURDAY
AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
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