293
FXUS61 KBTV 041822
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION TODAY, WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM EDT FRIDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY TODAY CONTINUES TO BE A
DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY. SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S TODAY. WINDS TODAY AROUND 10 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE
CALM OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEK, AND MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. FURTHERMORE,
COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASILY REACH CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS.
BY SATURDAY, PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR
ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT OF TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING HEAT AND INCREASING HUMIDITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT FALL MUCH WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE WARMING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TREND
WILL REACH ITS PLATEAU ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 IN MOST
LOCATIONS, AND MID 90S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S, HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH OR BRIEFLY
EXCEED 95 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS HIGHER VALUES
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AROUND 28C, AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C. WHILE THE HEAT WONT BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER
THIS SEASON, BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND USE CAUTION WITH ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE MOST
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO, OUTSIDE OUR AREA, THE HEAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN NEW
YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOREOVER, A LOW-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS
GUSTS 25-30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WX MID/LATE WEEK. ALSO, MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS OUR CWA, WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. A COLD FRONT WL BE SLICING ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE, MODERATE
INSTABILITY, AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WL
PLAY AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND HOW
ROBUST CONVECTION CAN BECOME. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AXIS OF
1500 TO 2200 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT,
WITH INCREASING 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS,
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID LVL WINDS AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT IN THE BL. IN ADDITION, AS THE MID/UPPER LVL FLOW
PARALLELS THE SFC BOUNDARY, SOUNDING AND STORM VECTOR ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACK BUILDING STORMS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE BTWN 11,500 AND 12,500 FT AND PW VALUES ARE IN THE
1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE, WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL, SUPPORTING
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. BOTH THE
SEVERE AND HYDRO THREATS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY ON
MONDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS SHOW A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
ACRS OUR FA WITH VALUES NEAR 25C IN SOUTHERN ZNS, SUPPORTING
HIGHS L/M 90S AND EVEN WARMER HEAT INDEX VALUES, ESPECIALLY
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
FRONT WL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ARRIVING ON TUES INTO WEDS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MOVES TOWARD OUR FA FOR THURS INTO FRI WITH MORE
SHOWER/STORMS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM IS
UNCERTAIN ATTM, WITH A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, SO HAVE
STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. AS TIMING OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
BECOMES CLEARER, HIGHER POPS MAYBE NEEDED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV ON SATURDAY MORNING.
CRNTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 3500 TO
5000 FEET AGL AND NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH CROSS OVER VALUES IN CLIMO FAVORED FOG
AREAS. SO HAVE UTILIZED TEMPO'S FOR IFR/LIFR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN
06/07Z TO 10/11Z IN FOG FOR NOW. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50%, BUT IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, PREVAILING
GROUPS CAN BE ADDED. OTHERWISE, FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z SATURDAY
AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
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