755  
FXUS61 KBTV 050545  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
145 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND WITH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.  
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE HIT-OR-MISS,  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 142 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE WEATHER ACTIVITY IS HAPPENING  
TODAY, OTHER THAN INCREASING WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE  
80S, EXCEPT SOME HOLDOUTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT JUST MISS  
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY SHOULD MAKE THIS A PERFECT  
SUMMER WEATHER DAY! SOUTH FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL YIELD WARM  
TEMPERATURES, TONIGHT. THE BROADER VALLEYS COULD REMAIN ABOVE  
70, WHILE SHELTERED SECTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN  
VERMONT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.  
 
THEN, IT BECOMES ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED OUTBREAK OF HEAT. A HEAT  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY PRODUCING HEAT INDICES UP TO 98 F DURING THE AFTERNOON. BE  
MINDFUL OF HEAT ILLNESSES DURING OUTDOOR RECREATION, DRINK PLENTY OF  
WATER, SEEK SHADE OFTEN AND TAKE SEVERAL BREAKS.  
 
AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SUNDAY, 925MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB  
INTO THE MID 20S C, WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.  
FORTUNATELY, THE QUICK BUILD UP MEANS THAT WE WON'T YET HAVE THE  
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES  
ALREADY AS HIGH AS THEY ARE, WE'LL VERY LIKELY OBSERVE HEAT INDICES  
IN EXCESS OF 95 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUTSIDE THAT, THOUGH, THE  
PROBABILITIES APPEAR SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WE  
SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY  
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL BUILDING OVERHEAD. SO  
THERE'S NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR UPWARD MOTION. MOSTLY  
GARDEN VARIETY ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE PLACE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A  
FRONTAL AXIS WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
JET SHOULD SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ALONG  
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND THERE'S ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY  
THAT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME THUNDER. WITH THIS, EXPECT  
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER  
70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 142 AM EDT SATURDAY...THERE'S SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH  
HOW A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ON MONDAY. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREAD  
IS QUITE HIGH. THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF DIFFERENCES DEPICTING  
THE RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3. I'VE  
BEEN ON THE RECEIVING END OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM SLOWING A FRONT  
DOWN AND HAVING TO MAKE LARGER ADJUSTMENTS AS A RESULT. AT THIS  
TIME, MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS RELATIVELY GOOD WITH A FRONTAL  
PASSAGE OVER THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE  
CONTINUED HEAT AND HUMIDITY, ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT, WHILE THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS IN  
CLOUD AND BEGINS TO PICK UP A NORTHWEST WIND DURING THE  
AFTERNOON KEEPING THINGS CLOSER TO 80. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE  
SOME WIGGLE ROOM AS WE APPROACH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SLUGGISH  
FRONT WITH 2" PWATS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. HOWEVER, 500MB FLOW  
WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT 40-45 KNOTS.  
THIS WILL HELP KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING, BUT THIS MEANS THAT WE  
WILL HAVE ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF SHEAR PRESENT WHILE WE DEVELOP ABOUT  
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE POTENTIALLY ALONG A SHARP THERMAL  
BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION. WE'LL MONITOR CLOSELY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 142 AM EDT SATURDAY...PAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE COOLER, WE DON'T COMPLETELY REMOVE THE AIR MASS. SO WE'LL BE  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. IT  
DOESN'T APPEAR LIKELY WE'LL SEE ANY OPPRESSIVE HEAT AT THE LEAST.  
THIS DOES MEAN WE'LL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,  
THOUGH. IF PICKING ANY DAY THAT'S LIKELY TO BE THE DRIEST, IT  
APPEARS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NEED SOME TIME TO RECOVER  
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEYOND THAT, VARIOUS  
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMPLITUDE, AND THUS THE SPEED, OF THE  
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE  
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL  
TERMINALS, WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. THE MAIN CONCERN  
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ANY POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY AT  
KSLK AND KMPV WHERE THE CHANCES OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE GREATEST.  
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FOG DEVELOPMENT,  
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE A DAY REMOVED FROM RAINFALL, SO UTILIZED  
TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE THE CHANCES FOR  
FOG, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,  
WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND  
TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY 15Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
TSRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-  
009-011.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ028-035.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES  
NEAR TERM...HAYNES  
SHORT TERM...HAYNES  
LONG TERM...HAYNES  
AVIATION...KREMER  
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