716  
FXUS61 KBTV 051743  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
143 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND WITH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.  
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE HIT-OR-MISS,  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 142 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE WEATHER ACTIVITY IS HAPPENING  
TODAY, OTHER THAN INCREASING WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE  
80S, EXCEPT SOME HOLDOUTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT JUST MISS  
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY SHOULD MAKE THIS A PERFECT  
SUMMER WEATHER DAY! SOUTH FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL YIELD WARM  
TEMPERATURES, TONIGHT. THE BROADER VALLEYS COULD REMAIN ABOVE  
70, WHILE SHELTERED SECTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN  
VERMONT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.  
 
THEN, IT BECOMES ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED OUTBREAK OF HEAT. A HEAT  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY PRODUCING HEAT INDICES UP TO 98 F DURING THE AFTERNOON. BE  
MINDFUL OF HEAT ILLNESSES DURING OUTDOOR RECREATION, DRINK PLENTY OF  
WATER, SEEK SHADE OFTEN AND TAKE SEVERAL BREAKS.  
 
AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SUNDAY, 925MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB  
INTO THE MID 20S C, WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.  
FORTUNATELY, THE QUICK BUILD UP MEANS THAT WE WON'T YET HAVE THE  
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES  
ALREADY AS HIGH AS THEY ARE, WE'LL VERY LIKELY OBSERVE HEAT INDICES  
IN EXCESS OF 95 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUTSIDE THAT, THOUGH, THE  
PROBABILITIES APPEAR SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WE  
SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY  
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL BUILDING OVERHEAD. SO  
THERE'S NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR UPWARD MOTION. MOSTLY  
GARDEN VARIETY ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE PLACE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A  
FRONTAL AXIS WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
JET SHOULD SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ALONG  
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND THERE'S ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY  
THAT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME THUNDER. WITH THIS, EXPECT  
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER  
70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 142 AM EDT SATURDAY...THERE'S SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH  
HOW A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ON MONDAY. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREAD  
IS QUITE HIGH. THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF DIFFERENCES DEPICTING  
THE RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3. I'VE  
BEEN ON THE RECEIVING END OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM SLOWING A FRONT  
DOWN AND HAVING TO MAKE LARGER ADJUSTMENTS AS A RESULT. AT THIS  
TIME, MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS RELATIVELY GOOD WITH A FRONTAL  
PASSAGE OVER THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE  
CONTINUED HEAT AND HUMIDITY, ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT, WHILE THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS IN  
CLOUD AND BEGINS TO PICK UP A NORTHWEST WIND DURING THE  
AFTERNOON KEEPING THINGS CLOSER TO 80. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE  
SOME WIGGLE ROOM AS WE APPROACH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SLUGGISH  
FRONT WITH 2" PWATS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. HOWEVER, 500MB FLOW  
WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT 40-45 KNOTS.  
THIS WILL HELP KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING, BUT THIS MEANS THAT WE  
WILL HAVE ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF SHEAR PRESENT WHILE WE DEVELOP ABOUT  
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE POTENTIALLY ALONG A SHARP THERMAL  
BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION. WE'LL MONITOR CLOSELY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST HEADING INTO  
MID TO LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BEGIN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HUMID, BUT  
NOT OPPRESSIVE AIR. CONFLUENT FLOW CREATED BY HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN  
CANADA WILL DRAW SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF MID-  
LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY DRY DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO RECOVER BEHIND THE  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHORTWAVES LOOK RIDE ALONG THE UPPER-  
LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE AMPLIFICATION OF  
THE MAIN TROUGH STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES.  
THE GEFS AND GEPS INDICATE A MORE BROAD TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALLOW  
FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM PERIODIC SHORTWAVE  
PASSAGES. HOWEVER, THE EPS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A MORE DEFINED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION  
BETWEEN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY AND CURRENT TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL WILL HELP GIVE A BETTER PICTURE AS TO WHAT THE UPPER-  
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GOING FORWARD. WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE  
EXPECTED FROM CHANTAL, A SLOWER SYSTEM WILL STALL THE BOUNDARY  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LEAD TO A QUASI- STATIONARY  
BLOCKING PATTERN, WHEREAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL KEEP  
MOISTURE MOVING LEADING TO POTENTIALLY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY CHANGES GOING  
FORWARD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM  
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO, ALONG  
WITH SOME HAZE AND SMOKE ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. NO  
TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE HAZE AND SMOKE MAY LEAD  
TO BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 6SM. OTHERWISE, CALM CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT MSS/EFK THROUGH  
THE EVENING, THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE  
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS WEST OF THE GREENS,  
AND VARIABLE EAST OF THE GREENS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS.  
TOMORROW, GUSTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK TO  
NEAR 25 KTS BY 16-18Z AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LLWS  
THREAT HAS DECREASED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD  
OVERNIGHT AT PBG.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
TSRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-  
009-011-021.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ028-035.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES  
NEAR TERM...HAYNES  
SHORT TERM...HAYNES  
LONG TERM...DANZIG  
AVIATION...DANZIG  
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