568
FXUS61 KBTV 060552
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 90 TO
100 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
OR SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE WEATHER TURNS QUIET MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE ALREADY SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. WE EXPECT THIS AIR MASS TO ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 90 TO 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES (95+ DEGREES) REMAINS ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS BUT WE COULD SEE
PORTIONS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BRIEFLY APPROACH HEAT INDICES
NEAR 95 DEGREES BY MID AFTERNOON. THE GFS REMAINS PRETTY BULLISH IN
TRYING TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
MANY OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SEEMS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDER PROBABILITIES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SO WE HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION
THINKING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD HAVE AROUND
1000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND PWATS BEGINNING TO SURGE ABOVE 1.5"
SO WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
TODAY BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET GIVEN THEY WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON MONDAY AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT CONVECTION ON MONDAY
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL EVER SO SLIGHTLY SINK SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES WHICH WILL HELP SET UP A NICE BAROCLINIC ZONE GIVEN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP
WITH EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS ALREADY IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION, VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES, LIKELY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, WILL
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TO DROP TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AROUND 30
TO 35 MPH BUT THE IDEA THAT TRAINING STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEEMS
PROBABLE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HIGH PWATS IN
PLACE, TRAINING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN ADDITION, WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POTENTIAL GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE SEVERE AND FLOOD
POTENTIAL CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN
AREA IS LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ON TUESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL SEEMS
PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, THE MAIN RAINFALL AXIS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FLOOD CONCERNS AT THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL NOT BE LOCATED OVER THE SAME REGION. A DECENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO HELP FINALLY KICK THE COLD
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING; EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THURSDAY IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE UNSETTLED THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL
FROM THESE STORMS ON THURSDAY BUT PWATS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (AROUND 1.5") SO WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY
CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. ON FRIDAY, WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT IT WON'T BE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GRANTED, THE
TIMING OF THE RIDGE MAY SLOW OR ACCELERATE 6-12 HOURS SO SATURDAY
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS BUT MODELS, BOTH ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC, FAVOR A DRY SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY, WITH SOME LLWS
POSSIBLE AT SEVERAL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BROKEN
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD, WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL TREND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING, INCREASING TOWARDS 7 TO 12
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AT KMSS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 18Z, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
CLIMATE
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING US WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF RECORD TEMPS FOR A FEW SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY:
MAX TEMP RECORDS
DATE KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK
07-06 95|2010 91|2010 95|1993 93|2010 91|1933
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY:
HIGH MIN TEMP RECORDS
DATEKBTV KPBG KSLK
07-06 74|1897 74|2010 65|1931
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ001-002-005-009-011-021.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ028-035.
SYNOPSIS...CLAY
NEAR TERM...CLAY
SHORT TERM...CLAY
LONG TERM...CLAY
AVIATION...KREMER
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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