374  
FXUS61 KBTV 061817  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
217 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID-90S. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE, ARE  
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF  
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE WEATHER TURNS QUIETER MID TO LATE  
THIS WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME  
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. RIDGING OVER NEW ENGLAND HAS LED  
TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED TO NEAR OR  
AT 70 MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY OUT. AS A RESULT OF THE HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY HAS FORMED A FEW SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, THOUGH NO SEVERE STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED. WHILE OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT SEEN LIGHTNING IN THESE  
CELLS YET, INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME POTENTIAL  
RUMBLES. THESE CELLS ARE ALSO HIGH BASED MEANING SOME GUSTY  
WINDS UP TO 20 MPH COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. SOME BRIEF  
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH PWATS AROUND  
1.5." IN REGARDS TO THE HEAT RISK, THESE SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT UP  
DEWPOINTS, BUT CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES UNDER RAIN  
COOLED AIR. HEAT INDICES AROUND THE AREA ARE HOVERING AROUND 90F  
BUT ARE STILL FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S BY MID  
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, SATELLITE SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND  
SOME MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHICH SHOULD  
HELP MIX OUT THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BRIEFLY INCREASE  
TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO LEADING TO MORE SUNNY CONDITIONS. IT  
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COVER AROUND, BUT INDICES IN THE LOW  
TO MID 90S APPEAR MORE REALISTIC.  
 
TONIGHT, WHILE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE, THE  
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS, WHICH IS RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE JUST NORTH  
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN  
VERMONT, PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A FEW STRONG STORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD LIFT NORTH BY SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT  
WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
BY MONDAY, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE  
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S. A SLOW  
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES  
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY  
WINDS. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT  
CONVECTION ON MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF  
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVER SO SLIGHTLY SINK SOUTH  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH  
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG TO  
DEVELOP WITH SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, VERY HIGH  
PWATS, LIKELY AROUND 2 INCHES, SHOULD ALLOW FOR TORRENTIAL  
DOWNPOURS SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE AXIS OF  
THE FRONT, AND ITS SLOWNESS, TRAINING SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO  
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WILL BE RIGHT ALONG  
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS CHANCES  
BEGIN TO WAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN  
VERMONT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON TUESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
STILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF VERMONT AS IT STALLS DUE TO THE  
PRESENCE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL. WHILE  
THE EFFECTS OF CHANTAL WILL NOT BE FELT IN OUR REGION, IT WILL  
HELP BRIEFLY STALL THE BOUNDARY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE MAIN AXIS FOR  
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE IN THE SAME LOCATION AS MONDAY  
WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL, HOWEVER, HEAVY  
RAIN IN SOUTHERN VERMONT STILL SEEMS PROBABLE. THE BOUNDARY WILL  
FINALLY MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE WILL HELP  
AMPLIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SURFACE FRONT THEREBY ENDING THE RAINFALL  
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE  
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SEE A RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING THE LONG TERM OUR CWA REMAINS  
BTWN MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OFF THE SE CONUS COAST AND GENERAL  
TROUGHINESS NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN INDICATES  
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL PREVAIL WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W'S AND  
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES IMPACTING OUR CWA EVERY 18 TO 30 HOURS.  
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT  
LATER IN THE EXTENDED FCST, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A  
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WEATHER ON THURS. LATEST GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ARRIVAL OF DAMPENING MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND  
ASSOCIATED S/W ENERGY, AND SFC BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT HIGH CHC/LOW  
LIKELY POPS FOR THURS. STILL SOME SPREAD ON TIMING WHICH WL  
PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT SHEAR WL BE  
PRESENT GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER LVL FLOW. WEAK RIDGE  
BUILDS FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT, BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS PROGGED TO  
ARRIVE LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. NO  
DAYS LOOK TO BE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT IN THE LONG TERM, BUT  
SEVERAL WINDOWS OF UNSETTLED WX IS LIKELY DURING THE TIME FRAME.  
NO SIGNIFICANT OR HAZARDOUS HEAT IS ANTICIPATED, AS WESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT THERMO RIDGE FROM BUILDING INTO THE NE  
CONUS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, TEMPS WL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS UPPER 50S  
TO MID 60S. A FEW MUGGIER NIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE  
LONG TERM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...RADAR SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS  
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING, EVEN  
UNDER THESE BRIEF SHOWERS, WHICH JUST WENT OVER BTV. HAVE  
UTILIZED PROB30 GROUP AT MPV TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, OTHERWISE DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN  
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REST OF OUR TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY IMPACT EFK TOWARD 21Z WITH BRIEF MVFR  
CONDITIONS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH  
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THRU 22Z, BEFORE  
DECREASING. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL  
SWITCH THE WINDS TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT MSS WITH LOW LEVEL  
WIND SHEAR INCREASING BY 00Z. DID NOTE SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT  
LOWER CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS AT MSS, BUT FEEL  
PROBABILITY AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO MENTION, BUT WILL  
PASS ALONG TO EVENING AVIATION METEOROLOGIST. FOG POTENTIAL IS  
LOW TONIGHT, GIVEN WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MIXING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
CHANCE TSRA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT  
CHANCE TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
TSRA.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING US WITHIN A FEW  
DEGREES OF RECORD TEMPS FOR A FEW SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORD  
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY:  
 
MAX TEMP RECORDS  
DATE KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK  
07-06 95|2010 91|2010 95|1993 93|2010 91|1933  
 
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY:  
 
HIGH MIN TEMP RECORDS  
DATEKBTV KPBG KSLK  
07-06 74|1897 74|2010 65|1931  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-  
009-011-021.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028-035.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG  
NEAR TERM...DANZIG  
SHORT TERM...DANZIG  
LONG TERM...CLAY  
AVIATION...TABER  
CLIMATE...NWS BTV  
 
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