306
FXUS61 KBTV 071129
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE WEATHER
TURNS QUIETER LATER THIS WEEK, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S AND 70S MAKING IT FEEL HOTTER WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY,
WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. TO
STAY SAFE IN THESE CONDITIONS, BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRY AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG
OR SEVERE, WITH SPC PLACING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A MARGINAL RIK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG. THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND
DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS. GIVEN THE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES
AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. BE SURE TO STAY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LESS ROBUST THAN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
ITS WAY OUT OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LUCKILY, THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY IS DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY, WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE
ANY FLOOD CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE ON TUESDAY, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S, ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE
MID 80S BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EDT MONDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE REGION REMAINS IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL TIMING OF THESE FEATURES, ALTHOUGH
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKE FOR SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN HOW ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS AND INSTABILITY COME TOGETHER. WHILE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE MEAN TIME, GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUE TO MATERIALIZE AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z. AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH WINDS
ABATING BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING A GIVEN TERMINAL, WE HAVE
OPTED TO USE PROB30 GROUPS RATHER THAN PREVAILING AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIT OR MISS. HOWEVER, SHOULD
A THUNDERSTORM IMPACT A TERMINAL, VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW
3 MILES WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF AFTER 3Z WITH CEILINGS STEADILY DROPPING TO MVFR AND
ULTIMATELY IFR AT MANY LOCATIONS BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ005-009.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ035.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...CLAY
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