509  
FXUS61 KBTV 072339  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
739 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH  
HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AHEAD OF SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WHICH MAY BE STRONG OR  
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY  
WINDS POSSIBLE. THE WEATHER TURNS QUIETER LATER THIS WEEK, WITH  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 737 PM EDT MONDAY...WE HAVE ENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TODAY  
AS THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY. WE  
EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO CONTINUE FALLING  
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING,  
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE, COULD YIELD PERIODS OF  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE,  
PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF  
PRECIPITATION. PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE TONIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING EAST  
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOWERS  
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST.  
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS DROPPING  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT  
SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH  
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY FOR HEAT INDICES  
IN THE MID 90S REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE CHAMPLAIN  
VALLEY. TO STAY SAFE IN THESE CONDITIONS, BE SURE TO STAY  
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS.  
 
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE CAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1500  
J/KG WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5-2." DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS WITH THE  
ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS  
FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING INTO THE  
EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN  
VERMONT. WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND PREVAILING  
SYNOPTIC FLOW, SLOWER MOVING TRAINING STORMS ARE ALSO  
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD FURTHER THE LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.  
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, THE NOSE OF THE LLJ  
WILL BE OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHICH COULD HELP MIX DOWN  
SOME GUSTY WINDS UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY CHANNELED  
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS 25- 30  
MPH. ONE CONCERN WITH THE WINDS IS THAT DCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND  
1000 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WOULD ENHANCE ANY GUSTY  
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD  
SEVERE WEATHER, AN FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE. BE SURE TO STAY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IF  
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BEYOND SUNSET  
AS THEY WILL MAINLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.  
 
TOMORROW, THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE  
SOUTHEAST CENTERING ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE  
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND NH BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT ANY STRONGER SHOWERS TOMORROW.  
HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AND A STRAY AFTERNOON  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME SOUTHERN WINDSOR COUNTY CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH  
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO  
MID 60S. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
DECREASING CLOUD COVER INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP  
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT UNSETTLED  
WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SET UP IN THE MID-WEEK. ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN A  
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL  
ALLOW A FEW SHORTWAVES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE SHOWERS  
AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE FORECASTED ACROSS MUCH OF  
EASTERN VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK  
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SET UP  
REMAINS IN QUESTION BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL  
INGREDIENTS AND INSTABILITY. WHILE SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED,  
DEWPOINTS WILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE COMFORTABLE WITH VALUES IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 221 PM EDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN  
SEASONAL NORMALS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
GENERALLY IN THE 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THE  
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THURSDAY, BEFORE A  
GENERAL DRYING TREND TAKES OVER. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT CROSS THE AREA, BUT NO  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO LOOK AT JUST YET. ON THURSDAY AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE THE  
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED. THERE'S STILL A LOT OF  
UNCERTAINTY FOUR DAYS OUT, BUT WILL MONITOR POTENTIAL AS WE GET  
CLOSER FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY  
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, PRODUCING A VARIETY OF  
CONDITIONS. WE CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE  
ON AND OFF THROUGH ABOUT 03Z-08Z TUESDAY. WIND DIRECTION AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT POWERING THESE STORMS IS OUT OF THE SOUTH, BUT  
BEHIND THE FRONT WE'VE TURNED NORTHERLY. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE  
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM. OUTSIDE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY ABOUT 03Z  
TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE PREVAILING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10  
KNOTS. WE'RE ALSO SEEING CLOUD CEILINGS LOWER BEHIND THIS COLD  
FRONT WHERE MANY SITES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ALREADY HAVE  
CIGS 600-900 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED  
TO EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,  
BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z-08Z TUESDAY.  
AS CLOUD LAYERS LOWER, WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS TO  
VISIBILITY AND MIST OR FOG DEVELOP AT SOME SITES. CONFIDENCE IS  
LOWER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS LOW STRATUS LIFTING, BUT  
GENERALLY THINKING MVFR OR HIGHER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY ABOUT  
12Z-16Z WITH MSS THE FIRST TO IMPROVE, POTENTIALLY AHEAD OF THIS  
TIMETABLE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT  
CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG  
NEAR TERM...DANZIG/STORM  
SHORT TERM...DANZIG  
LONG TERM...NEILES  
AVIATION...STORM  
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