758
FXUS61 KBTV 080641
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
241 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. THE WEATHER TURNS QUIETER LATER THIS WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUD AND DREARY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLY,
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
ANOTHER FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY, WITH INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE EXACTLY ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THURSDAY IS
LOOKING TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK,
WITH NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND HOW ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE
GET CLOSER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE, IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE REGION REMAINS IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES. WHILE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, IT
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE IS GENERALLY THE FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOST SITES ALREADY IFR/LIFR AND
OTHERS TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION BY 09Z. CONDITIONS WON'T
LIKELY IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE, AND FOR SOME SITES LIKE
KBTV, IFR OR LOWER WILL LIKELY HOLD ON UNTIL CLOSER TO NOON WHEN
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION FINALLY BREAKS. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS
SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY NNE LESS THAN
10 KTS, TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...LAHIFF
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