758  
FXUS61 KBTV 080641  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
241 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION,  
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES FOR SHOWERS  
TODAY. THE WEATHER TURNS QUIETER LATER THIS WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUD AND DREARY CONDITIONS OBSERVED  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH FEW LINGERING SHOWERS  
THIS MORNING AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS  
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES  
TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER  
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLIMBING  
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO  
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE  
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLY,  
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.  
 
ANOTHER FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH  
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE FIRST  
PORTION OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY, WITH INCREASING SHOWER  
CHANCES TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE EXACTLY ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE  
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE BOUNDARY  
MOVES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THURSDAY IS  
LOOKING TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK,  
WITH NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
OF 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL  
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE  
AND HOW ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR  
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE  
GET CLOSER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE, IN THE  
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS  
THE REGION REMAINS IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED  
SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL  
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL TIMING OF THESE  
FEATURES. WHILE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, IT  
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT AT THIS TIME.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN  
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE IS GENERALLY THE FORECAST  
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOST SITES ALREADY IFR/LIFR AND  
OTHERS TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION BY 09Z. CONDITIONS WON'T  
LIKELY IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE, AND FOR SOME SITES LIKE  
KBTV, IFR OR LOWER WILL LIKELY HOLD ON UNTIL CLOSER TO NOON WHEN  
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION FINALLY BREAKS. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS  
SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MID  
AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY NNE LESS THAN  
10 KTS, TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...KREMER  
NEAR TERM...KREMER  
SHORT TERM...KREMER  
LONG TERM...KREMER  
AVIATION...LAHIFF  
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