813
FXUS61 KBTV 081732
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES FOR SHOWERS
TODAY. THE WEATHER TURNS QUIETER LATER THIS WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUD AND DREARY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TODAY,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLY, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND 60S.
ANOTHER FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY, WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE EXACTLY ANY SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION.
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW ABOUT A 50%
CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE, IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE REGION REMAINS IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. WHILE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TODAY,
AND MOST SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR, EXCEPTION IS EFK WHICH IS
STILL IFR. BY LATE AFTERNOON VFR WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG FORM
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM NW-NE FROM 4-8KTS THROUGH
THE DAY TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. A BIT OF A
FORECAST CHALLENGE TO FIGURE OUT IF FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AND MPV, WITH A HINT AT POSSIBILITY OF FG AT MPV ALSO.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...NEILES
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