813  
FXUS61 KBTV 081732  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
132 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION,  
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES FOR SHOWERS  
TODAY. THE WEATHER TURNS QUIETER LATER THIS WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUD AND DREARY CONDITIONS OBSERVED  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH FEW LINGERING  
SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES  
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE MAIN AXIS OF  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TODAY,  
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER  
80S. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT,  
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLY, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER  
50S AND 60S.  
 
ANOTHER FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH  
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE FIRST  
PORTION OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY, WITH INCREASING  
SHOWER CHANCES TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL  
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE EXACTLY ANY SHOWERS WILL  
DEVELOP.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE  
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION.  
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW ABOUT A 50%  
CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO  
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW ALL OF THE  
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE GET  
CLOSER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE, IN THE  
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 241 AM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK  
AS THE REGION REMAINS IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH, ALTHOUGH  
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL  
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. WHILE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A COMPLETE  
WASH OUT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY  
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TODAY,  
AND MOST SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR, EXCEPTION IS EFK WHICH IS  
STILL IFR. BY LATE AFTERNOON VFR WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG FORM  
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM NW-NE FROM 4-8KTS THROUGH  
THE DAY TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. A BIT OF A  
FORECAST CHALLENGE TO FIGURE OUT IF FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPS  
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS  
AT SLK AND MPV, WITH A HINT AT POSSIBILITY OF FG AT MPV ALSO.  
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OR  
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,  
CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...KREMER  
NEAR TERM...KREMER  
SHORT TERM...KREMER  
LONG TERM...KREMER  
AVIATION...NEILES  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab NY Page
Main Text Page