275  
FXUS61 KBTV 090649  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
249 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY QUIET  
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY,  
WHILE MORE LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND  
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE  
SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 249 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND VERMONT TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED  
NORTH OF THE REGION REMAINS LARGELY IN CONTROL. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOW  
CLOUDS AND FOG SCOUR OUT BY MIDDAY, SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN,  
SO ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST MAY PROVIDE  
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN  
SHOWERS, BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY IS LOW.  
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY PUSHING IN THE  
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW/MID 60S  
IT WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY MUGGY LIKE A NORMAL SUMMER DAY. SOME  
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL WITH  
LITTLE OVERALL AIRMASS CHANGE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.  
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OFFERING A WARMER AND  
MUGGIER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 249 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
TROUGH GLANCES THE REGION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC.  
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG AND  
30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR DEVELOPING FROM NOON THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL MODELS SHOW LIMITED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS  
AND A FAIRLY WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING MORE OF THE GARDEN  
VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. AREAL  
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION WITH LITTLE  
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE CAMS, BUT THE SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SO IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT RIGHT NOW WOULD BE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY  
RAIN AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.5"  
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 10KFT. CURRENT 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD  
GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS 1.5" IN SOME AREAS, BUT OVERALL AROUND 2" FOR  
THE REGION, AND WITH A DRY DAY TODAY THAT WILL LIKELY RISE A LITTLE  
BIT FOR THURSDAY.  
 
ANY CONVECTION ON THURSDAY WILL WANE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE  
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR  
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES. A WARMING TRENDS  
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 249 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY A LOW-IMPACT BUT UNSETTLED  
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG- TERM IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT  
FROM A SHORT RIDGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL HELP TO DRIVE HEAT  
INDEX VALUES TOWARDS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. PROBABILITIES OF  
EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OF 95 OR HIGHER WILL PEAK ON  
SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE SCALE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE MOST LIKELY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A MARGINAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE  
BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, SEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO PERSIST  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SET IN ACROSS  
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TERMINALS. SITES THAT WILL SEE PREVAILING FOG  
WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT SLK/EFK WHERE A  
LACK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PREDOMINATE FOG. MPV WILL SEE  
PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD,  
BUT AS LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, CLEARING SHOULD  
GIVE WAY TO FOG BEYOND 08Z. LOW CLOUDS AT MSS/PBG/RUT HAVE LED TO  
BOUNCING MVFR 5SM VISIBILITIES FROM BR WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH  
10Z, WHEN MORE PREVAILING MVFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. WHILE  
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN MIST AFFECTING BTV, SATELLITE IMAGERY  
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LATE LOW CLOUDS OR FOG INTRUSION  
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 10Z, WITH FURTHER DETAIL IN THE NAM3K  
MODEL SOUNDINGS. ONLY UTILIZED A TEMPO GROUP GIVEN THE LOWER  
CONFIDENCE. BY 12Z, ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH  
CALM WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL  
GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT SUGGESTS A RETURN OF FOG TO THE  
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TERMINALS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,  
CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT  
CHANCE TSRA.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF  
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF  
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF  
LONG TERM...DANZIG  
AVIATION...DANZIG  
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