129
FXUS61 KBTV 170528
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, THOUGH
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS HAZY. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW, BUT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
PUT AN END TO IT TOMORROW NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHORT LIVED,
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER REINFORCING
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS
SEASONABLE BEFORE WARM AIR RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 201 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER TODAY IS ONGOING. MOST THE
FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MID 80S TO JUST TOUCHING 90 WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SEVERAL RELIABLE STATIONS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE NOW CLIMBED ABOVE 95 F HEAT INDEX VALUES, AND
THESE WILL LIKELY EXPAND AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING IN JUST AN HOUR OR
SO.
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, CONVECTION WILL HAVE A LATE SHOWING
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BUBBLING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AROUND SUNSET AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT OVER NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A LARGER PUSH BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AM AND
NOON WHILE A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE NEAR OR NORTH OF MONTREAL WITH A SUB 1000MB LOW, WHICH IS
PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN CLASSIC NORTH COUNTRY AND
VERMONT FASHION, THERE IS A TINY DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AND THIS INCOMING FEATURE, RAISING THE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW
MUCH SOLAR HEATING WE CAN GET BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE
INCOMING FRONT. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK ABOUT 3-4 PM, REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ABOUT 6-7
PM, AND THEN EXIT EAST OF VERMONT AROUND 9-10 PM.
ALTHOUGH CAPE PROFILES ARE TALL, SKINNY VARIETY, THERE WILL BE ABOUT
1000 J/KG OF DCAPE, 30-35 KNOTS OF SHEAR, AND STRONG FRONTAL FORCING
AGAINST A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. THERE IS ALSO A LATE-SEASON LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KNOTS AT 850MB. ALTHOUGH THIS AND THE SURFACE LOW
WILL ADD SOME BACKGROUND HELICITY, THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILES COULD
LIMIT SUSTAINED RAPID VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND ALSO RESULT IN SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT COULD DISRUPT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ORGANIZED
FEATURES. THE MAIN THING THIS COULD DO IS ACCELERATE ANY WINDS
COMING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS OR EAST OF THE GREENS IN ANY PARTICULAR
STRONG SHOWER OR STORM. EVEN OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THIS
COULD RESULT IN 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS, LOCALLY TO 35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE, THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONDITIONAL AT BEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS FOR LOCALIZED, SHORT-LIVED SEVERE STORMS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 201 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH, AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COOL, DRY AIR RUSHES IN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, AND THEN
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT WITH 70S TO NEAR 80. NO POPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST ALL VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK FALLING BELOW 60 F.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 201 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SATURDAY WITH
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOW/MID 80S. LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS FAVOR THE
PARENT LOW POSITION DISPLACED WELL INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA
RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN A MOSTLY
NOCTURNAL PASSAGE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE BLUNTED, BUT REMAIN
NON-ZERO. THE REPLACEMENT AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND IS STRONGLY FAVORED TO BE DRIER GIVEN ITS
CONTINENTAL ORIGIN. AS SUCH, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH'S CENTER
TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE SEMI-PERMANENT
BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID-LATE WEEK,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO RETURN POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
SHARPER WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT MANY OF OUR TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FIRST A WARM FRONT IS PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NY TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AT MSS/SLK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EAST INTO THE CPV TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z
AT SLK.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...TABER
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