488
FXUS61 KBTV 180635
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
235 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
GORGEOUS WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOW HUMIDITY. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING A LITTLE TASTE OF FALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 234 AM EDT FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS QUICKLY ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AND THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REACH THE 50S BY
MORNING OUTSIDE THE BROAD VALLEYS. ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
SEEMS TO BE CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT, THE
COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FUNNEL DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND DROP TEMPERATURES MORE. A LOT OF STRATOCUMULUS
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF
MIST AND DRIZZLE FROM CLOUD TOPS TOO LOW FOR THE RADAR TO PICK UP,
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE IN A FEW AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
EXITS PRETTY ABRUPTLY IN THE MORNING AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN QUICKLY.
A GORGEOUS DAY IS IN STORE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL
CAUSE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. SOME OF THE COLDEST HOLLOWS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S, WITH THE MAV FORECASTING 39 FOR SLK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST TOMORROW, BEGINNING RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AND HUMIDITY WILL STAY QUITE LOW.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
AS OF 234 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK WEST TO
EAST EITHER RIGHT OVER THE REGION OR JUST TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL OVERSPREAD SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME,
THOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN MANY AREAS. WHILE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE SOME STRATIFORM
ELEMENTS AND THE PLACEMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE CHANCES CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS NO SEVERE THREAT AND THE
PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW AND QUICK MOVING SO THERE
IS NO FLOOD THREAT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN AND UPSLOPE AREAS. CURRENTLY, UP TO AROUND A
HALF INCH LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS AND KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMALS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE DEPARTING SUNDAY WITH
SOME LINGERING CHANCES MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN VERMONT BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY. THE REPLACEMENT AIRMASS WILL BE
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND IS STRONGLY FAVORED TO BE DRIER GIVEN
ITS CONTINENTAL ORIGIN. AS SUCH, PLEASANT CONDITIONS, HIGHS IN THE
70S/LOW 80S THROUGH TUESDAY, ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND AS THE HIGH'S CENTER TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MID-LATE WEEK, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO
RETURN POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A SHARPER WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BECOMING MORE FAVORED. ENSEMBLES AND BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVOR A FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TO FOR OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS MAY BE AT
ODDS WITH PROJECTED HIGHS WHICH ARE PROJECTED BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90, BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE TEASED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A COMBINATION OF MVFR/VFR CIGS PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES WITH INTERVALS OF IFR AT SLK. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BEFORE VFR
DEVELOPS AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
MPV/EFK AND BTV THRU THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS FROM 12Z THIS MORNING THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MYSKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...TABER
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