814
FXUS61 KBTV 181750
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE A
FRONT BRINGS MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS RETURN
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERNIGHT
NIGHT PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO WARM AND TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WERE
ADJUSTED MUCH COOLER TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AIR UNDER IDEAL
RADIATION COOLING SCENARIO. LOWS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S IN GENERAL WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR TYPICALLY COLDEST HOLLOWS WHILE MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FOR SATURDAY,
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S AS WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS FEELING MORE ON THE PLEASANT SIDE DESPITE THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDING UP LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS AN
EARLIER PRESENTATION OF FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING, BUT CAMS
ARE KEEPING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER IN THE DAY. THE FORECAST
KEPT MOSTLY TOWARDS BLENDED GUIDANCE, BUT EDGE THE PASSAGE
TOWARDS LATE MORNING AS A NOD TO CAMS. AN IMPULSE MOVING ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ADD SOME INCREASING FORCING SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WORDING AND POTENTIAL FOR 0.25-0.75" AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH; THIS IS A SHARP INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS WHICH GENERALLY HAD LESS THAN 0.25". CAMS AGAIN WERE
HIGHER WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG TERRAIN EXCEEDING 1", BUT THIS
WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND WHETHER MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS AN AREA. SO FOR NOW, WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARDS CURRENT BLENDED/GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...COOL NORTH FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL YIELD BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S. POPS NIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE, RADIATIONAL COOLING
MAY ONLY BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS. NEVERTHELESS, WE'LL LIKELY OBSERVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SLOW, BUT STEADY WARMING WILL OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHILE A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH PREVENTS THICKNESSES FROM RISING. THIS
WILL KEEP WARM, HUMID AIR AT BAY FOR A COUPLE DAYS. BY WEDNESDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WHILE 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. DIFFERENT
MODEL SCENARIOS DEPICT EITHER A THURSDAY OR FRIDAY ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT FRONT, SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE TEMPERATURE TREND LEVELING OFF.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...FLIGHT RULES WILL LIKELY BE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL FOG AT OUR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS AT KSLK AND KMPV FROM ROUGHLY
06Z TO 11Z. OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND
4000-6000 FT DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BEYOND 12Z SATURDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE AROUND
5 TO 10 KNOTS RIGHT NOW, AND SHOULD STEADILY DECREASE TO LIGHT
OR TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 00Z. AFTER 12Z, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 9 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...HAYNES
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