689
FXUS61 KBTV 271835
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
235 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WIND DOWN, A PERIOD
OF DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA, PRIMARILY FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE SEASONABLE AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS HELPING PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITHIN THIS FLOW, A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS UPSTREAM WITH
STRATOCUMULUS FADING AWAY TO SUNNY SKIES, INDICATIVE OF A MAINLY
CLEAR NIGHT AHEAD WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN. AS SUCH, AREAS
OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WHERE IT HAS RAINED TODAY AND
IN THE VICINITY OF BODIES OF WATER. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
NARROW, AND AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW
SOME SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THESE BREEZES WILL BE CHANNELED
THROUGH THE WIDE VALLEYS, SO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THE TYPICAL AREAS ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
IS ANTICIPATED IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST,
WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WE ARE TRACK TO SEE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, CURRENTLY UP BY
JAMES BAY/NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO, DROP SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS THESE SYSTEMS CONVERGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RAMP UP IN OUR WESTERN
AREAS. THE RAINFALL FORECAST HAS TICKED UP FURTHER WITH
BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS NOW MOST LIKELY NEAR 1" IN A LARGE
SWATH ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL SEE BOTH THE
LONGEST DURATION OF SHOWERS AND GREATEST RISK OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, BEGINNING AS SOON AS THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY SWEEP EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD, ALONGSIDE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AS SUCH, RAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IN NORTHERN NEW YORK BUT MORE
QUESTIONABLE FARTHER EAST, WITH ONSET NEAR OR AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT ALL OF VERMONT ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DYNAMIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. A BENEFICIAL, ALBEIT LIGHT RAIN EVENT, IS
LIKELY, WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.2 TO 0.4". GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS OVER NORTHEASTERN VERMONT (ABOUT
20-30%), WITH MORE OF A 10-20% FARTHER WEST/SOUTH. LOCALLY GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
UNLIKELY, BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. A
SHORT PERIOD OF UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IS FAVORED TOWARDS EVENING
IN THE NORTHERN GREENS, AS WELL, BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WRAP UP IN OUR REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VICINITY OF OUR
TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. IT WILL BE A COOL AIR MASS, SUCH THAT MOUNTAIN SUMMIT
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW 40S AND UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WILL BE MODIFIED
BY ANY LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT IT WILL GENERALLY BE CHILLY/FALL-
LIKE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 153 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING AND VERTICALLY STACKED
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AND SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE EAST NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE SHOWERY ACTIVITY. TRENDS TODAY HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS AND COLUMN, HOWEVER, ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT DESPITE
MODEST SURFACE FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS, AND PWATS NEAR 0.7 INCHES
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE GREENS AND
ADIRONDACKS. ENSEMBLE CAA LOOKS TO ALSO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7-10C. SOME SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT
COULD HELP THE EVENING STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE. COOL UPPER AIR, AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S, WITH 50S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LOW OUT BY
MONDAY, THOUGH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO START NEXT WEEK WITH
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE, AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION LEADING TO A FEW SHORTWAVE PASSAGES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR RUT/SLK/MSS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND SKIRT SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER PASSES OVER A TERMINAL, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES OF A SHOWER AT A TERMINAL REMAINS LOW. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. GIVEN
THAT RUT AND MPV RECEIVED SOME SHOWERS TODAY, RUT POTENTIALLY
MORE, AND SOME INDICATIONS OF CLEARING SKIES AT LEAST IN THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT, CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN IN AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW
FOG NEAR MPV/RUT, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN FULL FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINAL. FOG WOULD BE EARLIER IN THE
OVERNIGHT AT RUT, AND MORE SO CLOSER TO 06Z AT MPV. AVIATORS
SHOULD MONITOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE AND ANY AMENDMENTS FOR FUTURE
FOG POTENTIAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY UP TO
15 TO 20 KTS AT TIMES BEFORE CALMING TOWARDS SUNSET. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE GUSTY UP TO 20 KTS TOMORROW BEYOND 12Z AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
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