415
FXUS61 KBTV 282259
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED BENEFICIAL RAIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CHANNELED VALLEYS TODAY, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT
AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. SHOWERS AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 229 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
APPROACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IMPRESSIVELY GUSTY FOR MODELED SOUNDINGS. WINDS
ARE EXCEEDING THE MIXED DOWN POTENTIAL FROM MODELED SOUNDINGS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OBSERVED ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND BETWEEN 20 TO 25
MPH ELSEWHERE IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF
THE MAIN VALLEYS, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. AS
THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHER WINDS, BUT CHANNELED FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY,
COULD YIELD SOME OCCASIONAL LINGERING GUSTY CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BRING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO MOST
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE MISSED OUT ON
RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS. DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRYNESS, THE ENTIRE
REGION IS CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT IN A MODERATE
DROUGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED THOUGH, PERHAPS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
AN INCH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH EAST OF THE
GREENS. SHOWERS WILL REACH INTO VERMONT BY TOMORROW MORNING,
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL DIP TOWARDS THE UPPER 40S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS, BUT WE SHOULD NOT SEE A
BIG COOL OFF WITH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. AS
THE FRONT CLEAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, CAA WILL TAKE OVER WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. INTO THE MOUNTAINS, COOLER AIR
WILL PUSH SUMMIT LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO FALL WITH EVERYONE AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN
FEELING TEMPERATURES BELOW 50, WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AGRICULTURE INTERESTED IN THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR ANY POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 229 PM EDT THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION AS CAA INCREASES. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
CYCLONICALLY ROTATE TO THE EAST SATURDAY, BUT WILL LEAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLOCKED FLOW AMD
925MB TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 10C, SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW HOWEVER, WITH ONLY A A FEW
HUNDRETHS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH VALUES IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW 50 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 30S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 229 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TREND LOWER ON
SUNDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
WHILE POPS ARE LARGELY 10 TO 20% IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS, COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED.
OTHERWISE, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH, SKIES WILL TREND SUNNY,
HELPING TEMPERATURES RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON SATURDAY,
AND AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD WILL COMMENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY
BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
AT NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM IS NEXT THURSDAY AS THERE
IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF ANOTHER LARGER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AND WHERE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL DETERMINE IF RAIN CHANCES BEGIN IN OUR REGION THAT DAY
OR IS DELAYED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. THE CURRENT SIX HOURLY POPS
REPRESENT A BLEND OF THE FASTER AND SLOWER SCENARIOS, SUCH THAT
SHOWER CHANCES ARE LOW THURSDAY MORNING, AND ONLY INCREASE INTO THE
20 TO 40% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DYNAMICS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SUPPLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL, SO
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS DRIVING SHOWERS THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING,
WITH MOST REPORTED RAINFALL VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES SO FAR. WHILE
THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN, WE ARE PREDICTING THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL STAY 3 MILES OR HIGHER WITH THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STEADY, HIGH CONFIDENCE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AT
MSS AROUND 08Z, FOLLOWED BY SOME ON AND OFF CEILINGS 600-800
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. SLK WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUIT WITH STEADY
RAIN ENDING AROUND 10Z, FOLLOWED BY A MIST OF 2-6 MILES AND
CEILINGS 700-900 FEET. CEILINGS AT THESE NY SITES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 14Z TO ABOUT 1800-2000
FEET, THEN CONTINUE TO RISE TOWARDS VFR AROUND 18Z-20Z.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE 3-9
KNOTS.
LOOKING AT SITES FARTHER EAST, WE SEE LOWER PROBABILITIES OF
IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF
RAIN WILL BE 11Z-20Z, THOUGH PBG WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN
EARLIER START TIME THAN THE OTHERS. CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE
1000-3000 FOOT RANGE FOR A PERIOD AT MOST SITES, RETURNING TO
VFR LEVELS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE TURNING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY OR EVEN
NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE LEADING
TO CHANNELING EFFECTS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN ENHANCING WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS. WINDS ON THE BROAD LAKE ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINED 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ARE NOT AS GUSTY, BUT
WINDS ARE STILL SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE
LATER INTO THIS EVENING.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...STORM
MARINE...DANZIG
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