614
FXUS61 KBTV 291133
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC, BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 219 AM EDT FRIDAY...FRONTAL RAINBAND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES OF 1-1.1" (PER RAP-
BASED SPC MESOANALYSIS), HAVE SEEN SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN TOTALS
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY, INCLUDING 0.73" AT KOGS AND 0.63" AT
THE HAMMOND, NY MESONET. HAVE INDICATED 80-90% POPS AREAWIDE AS
FRONTAL RAIN BAND MAKES AN EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE REST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 0.25-0.50", BUT A FEW EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AS
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN VT. TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL MAY YIELD REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN NY/ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR AREAS IN BETWEEN - INCLUDING THE ERN
ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY - THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIMITED INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR LATE
AUGUST...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY, EXCEPT
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VT.
TRAILING CLOSED UPPER LOW MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HAVE NOTED LOW FROUDE NUMBERS IN NAM3 GUIDANCE
AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/NW FLOW DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC BLOCKING AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY ACROSS NERN NY, NWRN VT AND ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN VT.
HIGHEST POPS (AROUND 60%) WILL BE ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT -SHRA WITH THE UPPER LOW AND PREVAILING 850-500MB
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.10" OR
LESS, THOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
VCNTY OF THE NRN GREEN MTNS IS POSSIBLE. WHILE A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT, FURTHER NORTH SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S, EXCEPT LOWER 70S ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 219 AM EDT FRIDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 850-500MB TROUGH AXIS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK. SHOULD SEE ANY
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON
BREAKS IN LOW-LEVEL STRATUS, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME FOG
FORMATION ACROSS THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 6-12Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY SETTING UP
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +9C TO
+10C, SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 73-77F RANGE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. N-NW WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL
KEEP 2-M DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 219 AM EDT FRIDAY...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALOFT A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THOUGH
SUPPORTING THE IDEA FOR A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TERRAIN
DRIVEN SHOWER TUE/WED AFTERNOONS, BUT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPS WARM BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME SPOT 40S. OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ATTENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CHANCE POPS ARE OFFERED FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO BE CONTAINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AFFECTING
ONLY KSLK AND KMSS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WHILE
TERMINALS EASTWARD ARE VFR. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KPBG/KBTV THIS MORNING, CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE KSLK/KMSS LIFT TO VFR.
AFTER 00Z, CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER AGAIN AT KSLK, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER ELSEWHERE SO HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WNW ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK, AND SSW ACROSS VERMONT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
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