410
FXUS61 KBTV 291915
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC, BRINGING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 314 PM EDT FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE HEADED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP OUR REGION UNDER
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED, LOW FROUDE NUMBERS IN NAM3 GUIDANCE AND DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE/NW FLOW DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
OROGRAPHIC BLOCKING AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NY, NORTHWESTERN VT AND ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN VT. HIGHEST POPS (AROUND 60%) WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT -SHRA
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND PREVAILING 850-500MB CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.10" OR
LESS, THOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE. WHILE A
FEW SUNNY BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VT, FURTHER
NORTH SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE 60S, EXCEPT LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VT. SHOWERS WILL
WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST. SOME FOG
FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 314 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, ALONG
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE US WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH
THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP, AS WELL AS MORE IDEAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 314 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING AT QUIET WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SUBTLE
CHANGES FROM DAY TO DAY. ON LABOR DAY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
LIGHT EASTERLY FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN A RELATIVELY UNUSUAL
PATTERN AS A WEAK UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH MOVES TOWARDS US AND
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER A BROAD AREA OF NEW
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL POSSIBLY LIFT
INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION TO SPARK ISOLATED, TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY BEFORE IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW.
SO HAVE KEPT POPS FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, WHICH SHOWS
A 10-20% CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, GREATEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH ALL MODEL CLUSTERS DRIVEN OFF OF THE 500
MILLIBAR PATTERN SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE
PREDICTABLY, COMPLETELY DRY SETUP WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, PROBABLY APPROACHING 30% IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ON THURSDAY, THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER BREEZY PERIOD A LOT
LIKE THIS PAST WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY STRONG/UNUSUAL IS NOTED
IN THE LATEST EXTREME FORECAST INDEX. ENOUGH SPREAD IN THE
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN OUR REGION TO
KEEP POPS FOR A GIVEN SIX HOUR PERIOD UNDER 60%, BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO RAIN AREAWIDE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN
AN INCH AT THIS TIME ARE ROUGHLY 10-25% FOR ANY LOCATION, AND
UNDER 10% FOR 1.5". LARGEST UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN VERMONT AND GREATEST
CERTAINTY IS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE ROUGHLY
0.5" BASED ON EARLY INDICATIONS.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT, WITH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
REMAINING VFR. HOWEVER, A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE, MAINLY
LINED UP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR EFK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST WEST OF MPV AND RUT. WITH DIRECT HITS OF
ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVIER RAIN, THERE IS TOO
LOW (UNDER 20%) A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SHOW VCTS. INSTEAD,
HAVE SHOWN TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AND RUT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SHOWERS. MEANWHILE, MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AT SLK AND BTV BEFORE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN.
THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION OF LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT/AFTER 00Z
DESPITE TODAY'S RAIN SUPPORTING LINGERING MOISTURE, AS THERE
WILL BE SOME DRYING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. STILL HAVE
INDICATED SLK, WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS FAVORED, IS MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS, WHILE PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON, SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL TREND WESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
12Z FOLLOWING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
LABOR DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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