850
FXUS61 KBTV 300614
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC, BRINGING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP WITH HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 205 AM EDT SATURDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES TO THE EAST OF OF THE AREA.
OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER, AN UPPER-LOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY
SPURRING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE SOME LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE,
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY. HIGHEST POPS (AROUND
60%) WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. THE VORT MAX WILL
TREND CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY MIDDAY WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY, BUT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME EMBEDDED
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN A TENTH, THOUGH THE HIGHER SUMMITS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. AS THE LOW CYCLONICALLY ROTATES
CLOSER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL
SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX BY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDES FROM
VERTICAL STACKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT APPROACHING THE LOW
70S UNDER ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE
CHILLIER SIDE WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE WIDER VALLEYS. SOME
CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME RADIATIVE COOLING
EFFECTS ARE ANTICIPATED. LOWS IN THE USUAL COLDEST PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S
OVERNIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY MID 30S IF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OCCURS. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLEARING, FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE USUAL COLD HOLLOWS
AND RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG, HOWEVER, WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.
A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW TO GRAB HOLD, AS OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
FILTER IN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 205 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GREAT
RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA LOOKING TO BE CLOUD
FREE UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FOG CHANCES IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF VERMONT LOOK HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
INTO THE 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE LOW 50S IN THE
VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER TREND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE ONLY QUIRK TO MONDAY
WILL BE THE FACT THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AS A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH, OFF THE COAST, MOVES CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND, THOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, TO NEAR 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MAKING FOR A PLEASANT LABOR DAY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
RELATIVELY LOW IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 205 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE'LL REMAIN UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM NEAR NJ/DE AREA,
CROSSING OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. FORCING WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL WITH
THIS FEATURE, BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK, THOUGH THERE'S STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO EXACT TIMING AND HOW THE PATTERN
PLAYS OUT. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SPIN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTH FLOW OUT AHEAD INTO
THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH, EXPECT WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80F. AS THIS UPPER LOW SWINGS EASTWARD, THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG THE EAST
COAST, WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY SHUNT SOME OF THE MOISTURE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE INCOMING TROUGH, LIMITING OUR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
EVEN ONCE THE TROUGH MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA BY LATE WEEK. IF THIS
DOESN'T OCCUR, WE'VE GOT BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN, SOMETIME IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, HAVE KEPT NBM
POPS CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE AS NOTHING IS LOOKING PARTICULARLY LIKELY
AT THIS POINT. STILL, NOTE THAT PROBABILITIES OF SEEING A HALF INCH
OR MORE OVER 48 HOURS ENDING SATURDAY MORNING ARE 40 TO 50% ACROSS
VT AND NORTHERN NY, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLY IN THE PERIOD. KRUT IS ALREADY
LIFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, AND EXPECT KMPV AND KSLK TO
FOLLOW SUIT BY 08Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z BEFORE
LIFTING BY 13Z. ELSEWHERE, SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KBTV AND IFR AT KEFK, BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD AFTER 12Z, AFFECTING MAINLY KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KEFK,
AND PERHAPS KSLK FROM 12Z-20Z SAT. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
TURNING W/NW AFTER 14Z AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
LABOR DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page