082
FXUS61 KBTV 092320
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND MORNING FOG FOR RIVER VALLEYS. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING NORTHERLY BREEZES AND
POSSIBLY ENHANCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN DRY VEGETATION.
THE NEXT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP IS IN
PLACE, AND WE'LL HAVE FOG IN THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE SPOTS.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO MID
40S, WARMEST AT LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, RELATIVELY
WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT BETTER MIXING LEADING TO
GUSTS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME FROST FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOST ISOLATED COLD HOLLOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE MAXING OUT A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR FROM TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WE
WILL HAVE A DRY COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME, BUT DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND WINDS AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA. WIND
GUSTS DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON FIRE WEATHER SINCE THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT. FINE
VEGETATION WILL BE PARCHED ON TOP OF DRY 100/1000HR FUELS. THESE
CONDITIONS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RATES OF FIRE SPREAD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 207 PM EDT TUESDAY...A PERIOD OF COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
BEGINS MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. A BROAD TROUGH WILL STRETCH
OUT OF QUEBEC INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHIFTING WINDS BY LATE
FRIDAY. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
PROBABILITIES OF 20-30% FOR GREATER THAN 10 MPH WINDS AND LESS THAN
35% RH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ON THE
LOWER SIDE SINCE WINDS WILL BE LOW, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN AT
LEAST A MODERATE DROUGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS COULD
CREATE MARGINAL FROST CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
CHANCE OF ANY OVERLAPPING BREEZY WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC. CLUSTERING SHOWS TWO MAIN SOLUTIONS WHICH
ARE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT. ONE WHICH LEANS INTO THE GEFS AND GEPS,
SHOWS A DIVING BROAD LOW OVER MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH
DRAWS ANY MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA FOR A DRIER WEEKEND. THIS IS
BASED ON A MORE BROAD TROUGH AND A WEAKER RIDGE PRECEDING THE TROUGH
AS WELL. THE OTHER SOLUTION SHOWS A WETTER WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS SOLUTION LEANS INTO THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WHICH RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO LAKE ONTARIO AS IT SOMEWHAT FUJIWARAS
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW. THE COASTAL LOW WOULD LEAD TO A
STRONGER RIDGE WHICH WOULD BLOCK THE UPPER LOW AND DRAW IT
CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC A LITTLE LATER INTO SUNDAY AND HANGS
AROUND INTO NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A LOW WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD FORM
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON ANY PRECIPITATION OR LOW
EVOLUTION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ALBEIT THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY COULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE SHOULD THE WETTER SOLUTION
PAN OUT.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...THE AVIATION CHALLENGE IS FOG POTENTIAL
AT SLK/MPV AND EFK WITH SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN AREAL COVERAGE.
CRNT CONDITIONS ARE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS, BUT SOUNDING
DATA SHOWS DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL JET OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING
AT 200 TO 500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL, WHICH COULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING WITH
DWPTS RUNNING 2 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS
AGO, SO HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH FOG AND
LIFR DEVELOPING AT SLK/MPV BTWN 06-08Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL
12-13Z ON WEDS. IN ADDITION, HINTED AT SOME FOG AT EFK, BUT FEEL
WINDS MAYBE TOO STRONG. ELSEWHERE, VFR PREVAILS FOR THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON WEDS AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
THURSDAY: VFR. PATCHY BR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...TABER
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