669
FXUS61 KBTV 102303
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND MORNING FOG FOR RIVER VALLEYS CONTINUES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING NORTHERLY BREEZES AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN DRY VEGETATION ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING DROUGHT. THE NEXT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM, ASIDE FROM A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME VALLEY FOG ONCE
AGAIN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN DOWN TO AROUND 40 IN THE COLDER SPOTS OF
THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ON THURSDAY THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL MAINLY ONLY NOTICE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH. GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. REGARDLESS, FUELS ARE DRY SO GUSTY WINDS COULD
ENCOURAGE FIRE SPREAD IF THERE WERE ANY FIRES. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 70S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND LOWS WILL DROP OFF WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION ONCE
AGAIN, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
30S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COOL AND DRY, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S. SOME CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH. IT MAY ALSO
LOWER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 146 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WHILE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THROUGH THE BASE. EXACT
TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THESE IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS, BUT AT THIS TIME AT LEAST ONE OF THESE
LOOKS TO CROSS OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. AT THIS TIME THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IS SUNDAY, BUT SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
SO CAN'T TOTALLY SAY FOR CERTAIN THAT EITHER DAY WILL BE DRY.
IT'S STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AMOUNTS, BUT DO NOTE THAT
PROBABILITIES FOR 24- HR RAINFALL OVER 0.50 INCH ARE STILL
FAIRLY LOW (LESS THAN 30%), SO AT THIS POINT DON'T ANTICIPATE
HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE
WEEKEND DRAWS CLOSER.
OTHERWISE, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE HEADING
INTO THE WORK WEEK AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IF THE WEATHER
DOES TREND MORE SHOWERY, WITH HIGHS STILL FAIRLY PLEASANT IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WE WILL THEN TREND WARMER BY MID WEEK AS
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MAINE IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT MPV AND SLK
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES AND CEILINGS
BELOW 500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE MOST LIKELY FROM AROUND
09Z-12Z AT BOTH SITES, LIKELY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT'S CONDITIONS
AND TIMING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON SOME VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS
AT EFK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT VFR
THERE OVERNIGHT LATELY AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGY. OUTSIDE OF THE
VALLEY FOG, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE, TERRAIN DRIVEN, OR CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT, PICKING UP TOMORROW OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS COULD GUST 15-20 KNOTS TOMORROW AT
TIMES 18Z ONWARD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...STORM
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