372
FXUS61 KBTV 121131
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY AND
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE SHOWERS, SO
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. PROLONGED DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MID-
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 156 AM EDT FRIDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND VERMONT. CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
HIGH CIRRUS BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY WARM TODAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S, AND MILDER TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 156 AM EDT FRIDAY...FOR THIS WEEKEND, TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS CHANCES FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY NO LONGER LOOKS TO DIG
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTEAD, A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TRACK TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE IS NOW THE CONSENSUS, LEAVING THE
CWA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT WEAKENS
THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL REALLY LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WITH VIRGA OR A FEW SPITS OF LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COME SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT EVEN THEN, THE
SYSTEM LACKS ANY DEPTH OF MOISTURE SO ONLY SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH QPF GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. ONE MODEL OUTLIER THOUGH, THE EXPERIMENTAL RRFS, AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS, TRY TO DEVELOP SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT
COULD PRODUCE A BIT MORE QPF SO THAT'S SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IF MORE
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S,
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 156 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST RETURNS TO DRYNESS.
DEEP, TILTED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST IN NO RUSH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM FROM THE 70S MONDAY/TUESDAY, AND UP
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S MIDWEEK. WE'RE LIKELY TO REMAIN STUCK
BENEATH RIDGING. DESPITE SOME DIVERGING MODELED PATTERNS BEYOND
MIDWEEK, THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS MOSTLY DEPICT DRYNESS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...FOG WAS INITIALLY SLOW TO DEVELOP, BUT
HAS SINCE BECOME WIDESPREAD, IMPACTING KBTV. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DOWN 1SM OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR NORTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GO CALM AGAIN. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN EASTERN
VERMONT VALLEYS AS HIGH CLOUDS COME FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW, HAVE
JUST NOTED A 3SM AT KMPV ABOUT 08Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...HAYNES
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