107
FXUS61 KBTV 130559
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
159 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE SHOWERS,
SO DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. PROLONGED DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BY MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 157 AM EDT SATURDAY...FOR TODAY, WE'LL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION,
BUT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AS FLOW WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEST-NORTHWEST, WHICH PREVENTS ANY LAKE MOISTURE FROM HELPING
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. SO 10-25 POPS WILL BE THE THEME TODAY. WE'LL
SEE STUFF ON RADAR, BUT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. GREATER CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A BIT WARMER, WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SPARK ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS SOME OF OUR MOUNTAIN
AREAS, BUT WE WILL GENERALLY OBSERVE CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 157 AM EDT SATURDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. EARLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 70S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE MINIMAL LEADING TO
QUIET AND COMFORTABLE TO THE START OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 157 AM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE,
AND WITH THAT THE CONTINUING WORSENING OF THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, WE'LL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GET BACK INTO THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE THE FIRST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION COMES
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH EVEN NOW, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO BACK OFF ON CHANCES FOR PERCEPTION AS GUIDANCE HAS US UNDER
RIDGING SURROUNDED BY UPPER LOWS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE HUDSON
BAY AND IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. SO OUR
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER COULD EASILY REACH TWO WEEKS SINCE THE LAST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LAST WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH MAINLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN FLOWS, NOTABLY KRUT WITH AN 8-10 KNOT SOUTHEAST
DRAINAGE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SHIFTING EAST OVERHEAD. IN COMBINATION
WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS, THE THOUGHT IS THAT FOG, IF ANY, WILL BE
LIMITED. GIVEN LIMITED CONFIDENCE, ONLY NOTED 4SM AT KSLK AND KMPV
FROM 09Z-12Z IN A TEMPO. VIRGA WILL BE LIKELY BEYOND 12Z. IF ANY IS
TO REACH THE GROUND, THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER KSLK ABOUT 14-17Z.
WINDS TODAY WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST, BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES AS WELL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 4-7 KNOTS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL
FALL TOWARDS 7000-10000 FT AGL. OTHERWISE, GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED BEYOND 00Z, AND WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
TUESDAY: VFR. PATCHY BR.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...VERASAMY
LONG TERM...VERASAMY
AVIATION...HAYNES
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