055
FXUS61 KBTV 131816
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
216 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
HELP PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. SUNNY DAYS WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL RESUME FOR THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND, ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS UNLIKELY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 214 PM EDT SATURDAY...A SUBTLE TROUGH IS SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION THAT WAS OBSERVED IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK BECOMING NON-EXISTENT. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEW POINTS AND
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IS YIELDING
SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY, SO A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WORKING THEIR WAY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO NORTHERN VERMONT. AMPLE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE, A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD IN CENTRAL QUEBEC AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS THE
THERMAL GRADIENT DIMINISHES CLOSER TO OUR LATITUDE. HOWEVER, IT WILL
BE TIED TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN SOME
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND THEN
INTO VERMONT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE EXITING QUICKLY BY THE
AFTERNOON. BY COMPARISON TO THE VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION WE SAW
TODAY, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD. YET RAINFALL STILL
LOOKS LIGHT (MAINLY UNDER 0.1") AND SPOTTY GIVEN A THIN AXIS OF HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT.
WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING CLOUD COVER,
ELEVATED DEW POINTS TODAY, AND LIGHT WIND, AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN A TYPICAL
NIGHT RECENTLY. AGAIN, ASIDE FROM ANY DENSE FOG, NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AND WHILE COOL AIR ADVECTION
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN SATURDAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS HIGHS RANGE THROUGH THE 70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG NEAR
BODIES OF WATER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE WEAKNESS OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL MEAN RELATIVELY MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS SHOULD
STILL BE PRESENT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS DIE OFF AND TEMPERATURES
EASILY FALL BELOW CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
WIDER RIVER VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 214 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE WEATHER OF NOTE ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR REGION. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S FOR MOST SPOTS. FOLLOWING THE VALLEY FOG THAT DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY MODEL FIELDS
OF 850 MILLIBAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY, THE MORNING COULD BE ON THE
CLOUDIER SIDE IN LOCALIZED SPOTS BEFORE AN EXTENDED SUNNY/CLEAR SKY
STRETCH BEGINS WITH DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS OVER TIME. HENCE,
DURING THE AFTERNOON SKIES WILL TREND SUNNY AREAWIDE. WITH A WEAK
REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A CLOSED LOW TRAPPED NEAR NORTH
CAROLINA AND RIDGING STUCK TO ITS NORTH AND WEST, LITTLE CHANGE IN
OUR AIR MASS IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE
FOG IS A SLAM DUNK OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITHIN FAVORED/TYPICAL FOG PRONE
SPOTS, WHILE LIMITED TO NONE IS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE GIVEN LARGE
SCALE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PRESENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 214 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO FRIDAY, CONTINUING THE PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, SOME CIRRUS LOOKS TO
ADVECT FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
LOW HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT
NIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S, THOUGH
THESE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, AND
IT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ONLY
BE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THIS FEATURE AND NO CONNECTION TO
GULF MOISTURE, SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. GEFS/EPS/CAN
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE
ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, A FEW
MEMBERS DO TRY TO DEVELOP AND CUT OFF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE REGION,
SOMETHING THAT WOULD PROVIDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE MADE THESE SOLUTIONS LESS LIKELY THOUGH. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWNS LOOK LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT, BUT ITS EXACT EXTENT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL REACH SLK
AND MPV, BUT IT WILL MOVE IN AND OUT A FEW TIMES, AND WHILE IT MAY
REACH EFK, ANY FOG THERE WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF. HOWEVER, THE FOG
EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS INTO THE NIGHT,
WITH MORE CLOUDS LEADING TO LESS FOG. ALL FOG WILL LIFT WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED AT TIMES TODAY
AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED AT TIMES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GO
CALM OR TERRAIN DRIVEN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
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