647
FXUS61 KBTV 141140
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY, BUT WEATHER ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY THIS WEEK.
AFTER A COUPLE SEASONABLE DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 201 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE NEXT IN OUR SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS SPARKING ALONG THIS FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT LATER
TODAY. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A NICE
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AGAIN, WE'LL
LIKELY OBSERVE PLENTY OF FOG TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP COOL AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, AND ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY
IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 201 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL
FOG IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, LOWER CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER DAY REMOVED FROM APPRECIABLE RAIN WILL RESULT IN MORE
LIMITED FOG, DESPITE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE OVERALL PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNCHANGED ON
TUESDAY, BUT THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS 35 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOONS, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 201 AM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DEVELOPING REX BLOCK EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO TREND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S, AND TREND INTO THE MID-80S FOR THURSDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE MODEST, WITH 2-M DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE REX BLOCK BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEAK
WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND KEPT ASSOCIATED
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY (AROUND 20%). COOL AND
CRISP CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SEWD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR PATCHY FROST AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LINGERING LIFR FOG AT SLK/MPV WILL
GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, LOOKING FOR SCT-
BKN060-078 CONDITIONS AS A MOISTURE-LIMITED 850MB TROUGH
TRANSLATES FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THRU THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY TRENDING NW AT 5-8KTS DURING THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. WITH FEWER CLOUDS,
BETTER CHANCES FOR PROLONGED RADIATIONAL FOG, ESPECIALLY 06-12Z
MONDAY, AT KSLK AND KMPV. ALSO ANTICIPATING 3-5SM BR AT BOTH EFK
AND MSS AT TIMES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. PATCHY BR.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
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