382
FXUS61 KBTV 150553
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT, ALLOWING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT MONDAY...SEVEN STRAIGHT DAYS HAVE PASSED WITHOUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS MOST SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THIS STREAK WITHOUT RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO EXTEND FOR
ANOTHER WEEK GIVEN UPCOMING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN, EXASPERATING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. DEVELOPING REX BLOCK, WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NWD TO HUDSON BAY, AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, WILL MAINTAIN SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS AM WILL GENERALLY BUILD SEWD
ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PATCHY
DENSE RADIATIONAL FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE MOST SECTIONS
BETWEEN 12-1330Z MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG TONIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 06-13Z. ALSO NOTING ON IR IMAGERY
SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN VERMONT. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD LIKEWISE GENERALLY DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING, YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TODAY
AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 70S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
80S FOR TUESDAY. LOWS FOR TONIGHT LARGELY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S,
EXCEPT REMAINING IN THE LOWER 50S IN VCNTY OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN
VICINITY OF SFC ANTICYCLONE AND LARGELY CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. POPS NIL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500MB REX BLOCK HOLDS FIRM
FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. POPS NIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE. PREVAILING AIR MASS MODERATES FURTHER, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80-85F RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS, THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID-80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MODEST,
WITH 2-M DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F. THEREAFTER, REX
BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING PER GFS/ECMWF.
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DRY WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AS SUCH,
KEPT ASSOCIATED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY (AROUND 20%) WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE FRONT OTHERWISE WILL USHER IN
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL AND CRISP CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL CAA MAY
YIELD A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH WINDS OF 15-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF SEVERAL HOURS, AND COULD NECESSITATE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THAT
TIME.
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. APPEARS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 30% ON
FRIDAY. LOWER MINIMUM RH VALUES (20-30%) ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. HOWEVER, WINDS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
ALSO BE LIGHTER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR PATCHY FROST AWAY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY AM AND AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
THESE FACTORS SHOULD PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE FROST AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM AN EXPECTED ROUND OF RADIATION
FOG AT SLK, MPV, AND EFK, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG AT SLK THROUGH
MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AND SOME BR/LIFR CONDITIONS
HAD JUST DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FORECAST HOUR. LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF FOG WERE INDICATED IN CENTRAL VERMONT,
POSSIBLY RELATED TO SOME STRATUS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT BEING SAID, THESE CLOUDS ARE SPOTTY
ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACT ON FOG FORMATION, SO HAVE SHOWN
PREVAILING IFR AT MPV BY 08Z AND USED A TEMPO AT EFK WHERE
STRATUS HAS ALREADY MOVED IN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THESE
SITES IN THE 1200-1330Z TIMEFRAME. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE, WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED BREEZES ONLY
UP TO AROUND 5 KNOTS MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TRENDING CALM
AGAIN TOWARDS 22Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. PATCHY BR.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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